You're betting on intuition, while the market makers are relying on mathematics. There aren't actually that many insider traders in the prediction market. If there are, they're simply those who thoroughly understand formulas and algorithms and diligently perform calculations and deductions. This is probably one of the few articles in Chinese CT that puts the "intuition" of market prediction into formulas. The Bayesian model in this article can already be fed into your AI to help you calculate. PS: To those who said reading articles wouldn't make money, it's not that you can't, but that you read them without putting them into practice or performing deductions… sigh… twitter.com/agintender/status/...