On March 11, the US February Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released at 20:30 UTC+8. The market generally expects the overall CPI monthly rate to be around 0.3%, the annual rate to remain at 2.4%, and the core CPI monthly rate to be around 0.2%. Several institutions, including Goldman Sachs, predict a moderate cooling in core inflation, but energy prices and geopolitical risks may still bring uncertainty to the future inflation path, causing the market to remain highly cautious before the data release.
Recent unexpectedly weak US employment data has further increased the importance of this inflation report. The market is using the CPI to assess the Federal Reserve's future policy path: if inflation continues to decline, monetary policy may remain accommodative; however, if rising energy prices transmit to inflation, uncertainty regarding the interest rate path will persist.
Amidst heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, risk assets are generally poised for a new equilibrium, awaiting data-driven catalysts. Cross-market funds are showing significant divergence among energy, commodities, and technology stocks, keeping short-term market volatility relatively high.
In the crypto market, BTC rebounded and then entered a consolidation phase. A significant amount of short-selling liquidity remains accumulated in the $72,000 area, while a liquidation zone for leveraged long positions exists around $67,000-$69,000. The current price is fluctuating around $69,600.
Overall, ahead of the CPI data release, the crypto market has not yet formed a new one-sided trend, and BTC price behavior is more reflected in the liquidity range game driven by macro events.
