Arthur Hayes, one of the strongest Bitcoin proponents in the market, recently made a noteworthy statement, saying he wouldn't spend even $1 on Bitcoin at the moment. According to Hayes, instead of rushing to invest, he will wait for signals of monetary easing from the Federal Reserve before re-entering the market.
Speaking on the Coin Stories podcast on YouTube, Hayes said that if he had a small amount of money to invest right now, he would still choose to stay on the sidelines. Although he previously predicted Bitcoin could reach $250,000 during this bull cycle, Hayes believes the current macroeconomic environment is not yet favorable enough to open new positions.
According to the founder of BitMEX, the deciding factor for the cryptocurrency market is not war but the printing of more money by central banks. Hayes argues that in many historical periods, Bitcoin has often surged when global liquidation expanded. Therefore, he only really started accumulating BTC when the US Federal Reserve shifted to an easing policy, lowered interest rates, or implemented measures to inject money into the financial system.
Hayes explained that rising geopolitical tensions, particularly the risk of escalating conflict in the Middle East, could force the US government to increase military spending. In that case, the Fed might be forced to loosen monetary policy to support the economy and financial system. When new money is injected into the market, Bitcoin typically benefits strongly because it is XEM as a scarce asset with a fixed supply.
At the time mentioned in the interview, Bitcoin was trading around $70,000, significantly lower than its all-time high of approximately $126,000 set during the previous market boom. Hayes argued that it was too early to say whether BTC had Dip . If geopolitical conflicts persist, global financial markets could witness a massive sell-off, not only in stocks but also in risky assets like cryptocurrencies.
In a more pessimistic scenario, Hayes suggests that Bitcoin could easily fall below $60,000. When the price breaks through key support levels, the Derivative market could experience a "chain liquidation" effect, meaning a large number of leveraged positions are forcibly closed, driving the price down even faster in a short period. In fact, Bitcoin briefly touched $60,000 in early February before recovering slightly.
Despite being cautious in the short term, Hayes remains extremely optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects. He has repeatedly predicted that the price of BTC could reach $250,000 in the next growth cycle, especially as global liquidation expands again. Hayes even suggests that the market may not have many years left to buy Bitcoin below $100,000 if macroeconomic financial trends continue to favor monetary inflation.
