Analysts: Calm US inflation data may conceal underlying risks; traders will closely monitor the performance of core service sectors.

According to Mars Finance, Ilya Spivak, Global Head of Macro at Tastylive, stated that the next catalyst for the market is likely to come from the inflation data itself. Economists expect the US overall CPI to rise 2.4% year-on-year in February, with the core CPI at 2.5%. However, a key risk is subtly visible beneath the surface. A significant driver of the January CPI data was the declining contribution of energy prices to overall inflation. Given that oil prices have already begun to rise in early 2026, replicating this seems extremely difficult. Regardless of what this means for the energy component of the February CPI data, traders will be closely watching whether core price growth (especially in the services sector) continues its slight decline. This could fuel hopes for inflation normalization after the Middle East conflict subsides, helping to calm market anxieties. If not, fragile financial markets could experience another wave of risk aversion as investors face the possibility of interest rates remaining high for an extended period. This would foreshadow a challenging situation for stocks, bonds, and currencies other than the US dollar.