According to ChainCatcher, QCP Capital's analysis indicates that BTC briefly fell below $63,000 before rebounding to around $70,000 amid geopolitical shocks triggered by the conflict with Iran, demonstrating relative resilience.
Options market volatility has fallen back to the mid-50 range, but risk reversal remains negative, indicating continued demand for downside protection. On the macro level, the stock market is under pressure, US Treasury yields are rising, and expectations of interest rate cuts are being postponed, resulting in stagflation characteristics in the market. Regarding oil prices, Brent crude briefly surged to $120 before retreating, with the IEA planning to release 300-400 million barrels of strategic reserves. BTC is currently behaving more as a liquidity-sensitive macroeconomic tool than a high-beta risk asset. The market is focused on today's US CPI data, which may determine whether expectations of an interest rate cut will be rekindled.
