On March 12, the US February CPI annual rate was 2.4%, and the core CPI annual rate was 2.5%, generally in line with market expectations and not changing the market's basic judgment on the Federal Reserve's policy path in the short term. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is pushing to launch Section 301 trade investigations against several major economies, and global trade and geopolitical uncertainty continues to escalate.
The situation in the Middle East remains a key variable influencing global risk appetite. Iran has stated its ability to block the Strait of Hormuz, while the International Energy Agency simultaneously announced the release of approximately 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves into the market, the largest release in history. Uncertainty surrounding energy supply and military conflict keeps the macro market in a wait-and-see phase amidst intertwined policy and geopolitical risks in the short term.
Against this backdrop, the crypto market continues its range-bound structure. Since early February, BTC has maintained a wide range of fluctuations between approximately $61,000 and $71,000. Looking at derivatives liquidation distribution, there is a dense accumulation of short-selling liquidity in the $71,000-$72,500 area, while the $66,000-$65,000 area represents a recent concentration of leveraged long positions. If the price falls further, the $61,000 level remains a deeper liquidity support zone.
The price is currently fluctuating below $70,000, indicating that the market is still primarily focused on gauging liquidity levels. The overall structure suggests that, until macroeconomic events provide a clear direction, BTC is likely to maintain a wide-range liquidity-driven trading pattern in the short term.
