A wider Middle East war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, seen for years as extreme ‘what-if’ risks, are now realities. The ranges of macroeconomic and geopolitical outcomes are vast, but reasonable future scenarios are starting to take shape. This week on #STTStreetSignals, we speak to Elliot Hentov, Chief Macro Policy Strategist at State Street Investment Management, about the evolving conflict involving Iran and the market implications of a prolonged disruption at one of the world’s key energy chokepoints. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/strait-signals-assessing-the-iran-war-risk-premium/id1692292577?i=1000754801197…

Twitter

I. It suddenly started charging money, but you probably didn't even notice.

You might have seen pages like these:

- "Probability of Trump winning the 2024 election: 51.3%"

- "Probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in March: 68.7%"

- "LPL Spring Split Finals, BLG's odds of winning: 1.39"

This isn't a betting website, nor is it media commentary; it's a special entity in the Web3 world—a prediction market.

Simply put, it's a mechanism where you "vote" with real money: you believe something will...

Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, has started charging fees! Behind this lies a sobering struggle over regulation, survival, and timing.

The most visible bitcoin buyers in the world are buying at near-record pace. It is not enough.
A CryptoQuant weekly report showed overall 30-day apparent demand at negative 63,000 $BTC as of late Marc...

Five data sources say the same thing about bitcoin market. It's thinning from the inside

Bitcoin tends to outperform traditional safe haven assets like gold in the two months following major global crises, according to new analysis from Brazilian crypto exchange Mercado Bitcoin.
The study...