On March 13th, according to Bitget market data, oil prices experienced a rollercoaster ride in the early hours of the morning. Brent crude oil briefly approached $100 per barrel, while WTI crude oil approached $98 per barrel, before falling back to $97.4 and $95.1 per barrel respectively. Earlier this Monday, Brent crude oil prices surged to nearly $100 per barrel before falling sharply below that level.
The U.S. Treasury Department had previously considered measures to lower oil prices, including intervention in the futures market. The Trump administration has temporarily allowed countries to purchase Russian crude oil stranded at sea, urgently seeking to stabilize the global energy market. It also announced on Wednesday the release of oil from strategic reserves to prevent price shocks. The head of the CME Group warned the Trump administration that attempting to lower oil prices through intervention in the derivatives market during a war with Iran could trigger an "epic catastrophe." However, the wild fluctuations in oil prices have led to speculation that the U.S. Treasury Department may have already intervened in the futures market; the Treasury Department declined to comment on this speculation.
The market currently believes that oil prices could still rise to $200, with all focus on the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba, issued his first statement this morning, declaring that he would not renege on his revenge and that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed. He plans to use this strategic waterway, through which 20% of the world's oil supply passes, as leverage against the United States and Israel. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Bessenter revealed that the US Navy will escort oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, but this may not be implemented before the end of the month.
According to PolyBeats , on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "the Strait of Hormuz will resume navigation before April 30" is 46%, the probability of "oil prices breaking through $120 by the end of the month" is 41%, and the probability of "oil prices breaking through $200 by the end of the month" is 4%.
