Latest polls show Trump's approval ratings declining; markets should pay attention to the risks of the midterm elections.

According to TechFlow TechFlow on March 14th, citing data from Jinshi Data, the latest NBC poll shows that Trump's approval rating among registered voters has dropped 3 percentage points to 44% from 47% in March 2025, while his disapproval rating has climbed to 54%. The Decision Desk HQ poll average shows similar results: 43.1% in favor and 54.4% against. Investinglive analyst Adam Button stated that the key for the market lies in the midterm elections. Trump himself has also pointed out this risk, noting that historical patterns show the White House's party typically suffers setbacks in midterm elections. If the Republicans lose seats in Congress, it will reshape the legislative landscape on tax policy, tariffs, and deregulation, and current stock valuations have already priced in these policies to some extent. The next big question is whether Trump will begin to face internal pressure to end the war quickly. Republicans have certainly already acknowledged the possibility of losing the House, and with the Middle East wars wiping out some of their voter base, the Senate's fate is increasingly uncertain.