Bitcoin holds $70,730 as Trump warns of strikes on Iran's oil-rich Kharg Island, and oil threatens to cross $100. Here's the test nobody asked for. Geopolitical shock, oil spiking, equity futures wobbling, and Bitcoin is down less than 3% on the day. That's not the behavior of a risk asset. That's the behavior of something that's starting to price in a different kind of risk: dollar debasement from an oil-driven inflation shock. The Fed meets March 17-18, with the decision on March 18. If oil stays elevated, the rate-cut narrative gets complicated fast. And a Fed that can't cut is a Fed that keeps pressure on everything except hard assets. The irony: the thing that was supposed to hurt Bitcoin might be the thing that validates it. Watch whether BTC price action diverges from equities around the March 18 Fed decision, and whether the ETF inflow streak holds through the announcement. Correlation behavior during the meeting will clarify BTC's risk-asset status.