The market trend over the weekend was characterized by small, incremental increases .
After BTC's surge and subsequent spike last Friday, there was little significant pullback on Saturday and Sunday; instead, the price gradually recovered from the spike. Yesterday's daily chart closed positive, and the market continued its upward momentum today, but the gains were not substantial. BTC only reached a high of around 74,000 before failing to break through. ETH was relatively stronger, touching resistance around 2250. The current trend is a typical example of a volatile upward movement—a slow rise with minimal pullbacks. Therefore, from a daily chart perspective, the overall direction remains biased towards a rebound.
This week's highlights:
BTC is in the range of 76,000 to 80,000 .
From a daily chart perspective, this area will be a significant resistance level. If the market moves smoothly, it will likely test this area this week. In the short term, the key intraday support level to watch is the 71,300-72,600 range . If the market continues to strengthen and reaches new highs, the structure remains healthy; however, if the short-term upward momentum falters, a pullback should be anticipated. The first support level remains at 72,600-71,300 . A break below 71,300 would warrant caution against another sharp drop in the coming days, potentially retracing to the 69,000-70,000 range . If such a pullback does occur, it would be a good time to reconsider establishing long positions.
ETH performed relatively strongly today, reaching resistance around 2250 , showing some signs of a catch-up rally. However, its overall strength isn't particularly outstanding, because if BTC surges to the 76,000-80,000 range , ETH should theoretically see a move to the 2500-2600 range. For ETH, this upward movement would require at least close to 10%, while BTC might only need around 5% volatility to reach its target.
In the short term, the main intraday resistance for ETH is in the 2260-2300 range . If a close appears on the four-hour chart, the price will likely experience a minor pullback. The first support level is at 2160-2200 . If 2160 is broken , the next support zone is in the 2000-2080 range , which roughly corresponds to the key support level of BTC at 69,000-70,000 . If the price pulls back to this level, it's worth considering re-entering long positions.
Overall, the current market rhythm is quite clear: BTC is leading the market, ETH is following suit with a rebound, and altcoins haven't seen much movement yet . As long as BTC doesn't show a significant weakening, the market will likely maintain its upward rebound structure in the short term.
The counterfeit goods sector has also entered a period of recovery.
However, the overall structure is very differentiated, basically showing a pattern of "leading gains among top-performing stocks, followed by smaller stocks, and stagnant gains among purely narrative-driven cryptocurrencies" .
First, there are leading public blockchains and DeFi projects . Mainstream assets like BNB, SOL, ADA, LINK, UNI, and AAVE generally move in tandem with BTC and ETH, with moderate increases in trading volume and gains typically between 3% and 8% . Compared to smaller-cap projects, these assets are more resilient to market downturns and attract more investment. Market funds are clearly concentrating on leading projects with stronger fundamentals and higher compliance .
Secondly, there's the Layer 2 sector . Driven by expectations of the Ethereum Cancun upgrade , Layer 2 tokens such as ARB, OP, and ZK performed relatively better, and on-chain data also showed signs of recovery, with TVL increasing by nearly 8% month-over-month. This increased activity fueled a price rebound, making Layer 2 one of the best-performing sub-sectors in this recovery.
Meanwhile, small- and mid-cap stocks and purely narrative-driven projects performed relatively weakly. Although some oversold stocks experienced short-term, impulsive rebounds, trading volume was significantly insufficient, and the rebounds lacked sustainability. Projects lacking real-world applications and relying primarily on speculative hype often saw rapid declines after initial surges, with liquidity remaining weak, and some even continuing their gradual decline during market rebounds.
Overall, the altcoin market is likely to continue its upward trend this week, following the movements of BTC and ETH . However, the divergence will become increasingly apparent: top-tier projects are more likely to attract investment, while the sustainability of the rebound in smaller-cap projects remains highly uncertain.
From a trading perspective, two key areas deserve attention: First, leading public chains and DeFi projects , whose price movements are generally in sync with BTC and ETH. Support levels can be found approximately 5% below recent lows, while resistance lies at the previous consolidation range. Second, Layer 2 ecosystem projects , driven by expectations of the Cancun upgrade, may outperform the broader market in the short term. Support is primarily around the 20-day moving average , while resistance is around the 90-day moving average . The overall strategy remains to prioritize strong sectors and avoid purely narrative-driven altcoins .
Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; caution is advised when entering the market. This is just my personal opinion, not advice, and is for sharing purposes only.
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