According to Foresight News , citing Cointelegraph, prediction market activity has surged as traders flock to contracts related to the escalating US-Iran conflict. Token Terminal data shows that in the week ending March 9, Polymarket and Kalshi saw record-breaking notional trading volumes of $2.49 billion and $2.85 billion respectively. Dune data indicates that the total notional trading volume across the prediction market has reached $145 billion, with 2.8 million unique users.
Meanwhile, U.S. regulators and lawmakers are tightening controls. Democratic Senator Adam Schiff introduced the DEATH BETS Act on Tuesday, which aims to amend the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) to explicitly prohibit federally regulated prediction markets from listing contracts related to war, terrorism, assassinations, and personal deaths. This comes after six Polymarket traders faced insider trading allegations for accurately betting $1 million on a U.S. attack on Iran.
