Bitunix analyst: The Middle East conflict has entered an "irreversible game," with oil supply chain and policy expectations diverging; BTC falls back after testing high liquidity levels.

According to ME News, on March 17 (UTC+8), tensions in the Middle East continued to escalate, with market focus shifting from "whether to cease hostilities" to "whether to completely end the threat." Trump demanded interest rate cuts and hinted that the conflict would ultimately depress oil prices, but the Gulf states experienced a structural shift in attitude—from avoiding conflict to supporting the weakening of Iran's military capabilities. Regional risks have escalated from short-term events to a long-term restructuring of the security framework. Simultaneously, the US allowing some oil tankers to pass through, coupled with supply disruptions for oil-producing countries, has placed the energy market in a highly distorted state. Greater policy divergence has emerged. On the one hand, the war is pushing up energy and transportation costs, strengthening inflation stickiness; on the other hand, economic momentum is showing signs of fatigue. The market is rapidly repricing its expectations for the Federal Reserve—the probability of interest rate cuts has significantly decreased, and even the tail risks of rate hikes are being reintroduced, with "wait and see" becoming the dominant trend. This means that the liquidity environment is unlikely to provide clear support for risk assets in the short term, and funds are more inclined towards event-driven and short-term speculation. Across markets, oil prices, shipping, and industrial metals are all experiencing supply disruptions, but policy uncertainty is exacerbating the divergence in funding: some are betting on inflation driven by escalating conflict, while others are pricing in demand disruptions in advance. This "two-way pricing" causes risk assets to exhibit volatility rather than a trend. Returning to the crypto market structure, BTC continued its upward trend after regaining 71,300, reaching a high-density liquidity zone in the 74,000-75,000 range. In the short term, there is a potential area for further shorting and liquidation around 76,500-77,400, and the current pullback indicates continued selling pressure in this area. Support is concentrated around 72,800, followed by the previous resistance-turned-support zone at 71,300. Overall, the market has shifted from "macro-driven upward movement" to "event-driven volatility." If the liquidity above continues to be absorbed and the price stabilizes above 74K, it indicates that risk aversion remains; conversely, once it falls back below 72.8K, it will return to the range and retest the 71K area, a key support/resistance level. The current price action is essentially a test and liquidation of high-level liquidity, rather than a trend confirmation. (Source: ME)