Bank of America survey: Rate cut expectations have cooled significantly; geopolitical conflict has replaced the AI bubble as the "biggest tail risk".

Odaily Odaily reports that the war in Iran is reshaping the global investment landscape and forcing markets to significantly reassess the global economic outlook. A Bank of America global fund manager survey released Tuesday shows that investor optimism is waning in the face of a rapidly changing market environment, and investors are frantically hoarding cash at the fastest pace since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. With the outbreak of the Middle East conflict and the resulting surge in oil prices, the "biggest tail risk" in the eyes of fund managers has shifted, with geopolitical crises and a rebound in inflation officially replacing the previous "AI bubble." Rising inflation expectations have ruthlessly dampened market bets on interest rate cuts; currently, only a net 17% of asset managers expect the Federal Reserve to lower policy rates, compared to 46% in February. (Bloomberg)