Bitcoin prices hovered around key levels ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision.
The focus shifted from interest rates to scatter plots and Powell's tone.
The market is weighing whether to implement a pay cut or not in 2026.
Bitcoin is at a real turning point on the day of the Federal Reserve meeting.
Earlier this week, the token's price surged to a high of $76,000 and is currently seeking new support in the mid-$74,000 range.
Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting was held against the backdrop of the Middle East war, and investors were less concerned about the interest rate decision and more focused on Jerome Powell’s speech on the future path.
Amid heightened uncertainty, cryptocurrency investors will be interpreting the Federal Reserve's statement with a key question in mind: will it fuel a Bitcoin rally or push it back to the $65,000 mark?
Federal Reserve Meeting: The Real Event is the Scatter Plot
The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%.
According to recent market reports from CME FedWatch, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is over 92%.
This is important because the interest rate decision has been largely priced in by the market, and the focus has shifted. Investors are now closely watching the dot plot for clues about the next move.
The dot plot is a chart from the Federal Reserve that shows the level that each policymaker believes the federal funds rate should reach by the end of the next few years.
Simply put, this is a measure of how strict the central bank's policies need to remain.
This is why cryptocurrency traders are so concerned about whether the median has changed.
If today's dot plot indicates two more rate cuts in the future, the market may interpret it as a more favorable signal for liquidity-sensitive assets such as Bitcoin.
If the indicator line tends towards zero production cuts, it suggests that the Federal Reserve is more concerned about sticky inflation and less willing to ease monetary policy, which presents a more challenging backdrop for the cryptocurrency market.
Three Development Paths for Bitcoin
A bullish scenario corresponds to a dovish stance.
Analysts say that if the Federal Reserve's dot plot shows two rate cuts, the price of Bitcoin could rise by 3% to 5% in the 24 hours following the press conference. This move would put Bitcoin back above the $76,000 mark.
The basic situation is relatively restrained.
If the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, the dot plot remains largely unchanged, and Powell avoids providing clear directional guidance, then traders may see this as an opportunity to sell rather than a new catalyst.
This happened after the January 2026 meeting, with Bitcoin falling from approximately $90,400 to $83,383 within 48 hours of the meeting's conclusion.
In a tail-risk scenario, the hawkish stance is to remain neutral.
This means that interest rates will not change, but inflation signals will be stronger, and the dot plot will show no rate cuts in 2026.
AInvest suggests that if Bitcoin does not signal a price drop, it could fall to the $65,000 area.
The $65,000 to $67,000 range has essentially become a key level that traders are constantly watching, as it lies just below the area that Bitcoin has been trying to break through this month.
In early March, the Mexican Stock Exchange (MEXC) pointed out that if Bitcoin could hold above $65,000, it could pave the way for a break above $70,000 and potentially test the $73,000 to $75,000 range.
Therefore, as is the case on any regular Federal Reserve trading day, the outcome of the trade may not be the sole determinant of interest rates.
After Powell begins speaking, traders will reassess market prices for the next few months based on his tone, data points, and pace.
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