The market is currently betting that this whole "Hormuz problem" gets cleaned up in the next 30 days. And I’m looking at the data from my office in Abu Dhabi, and so far it’s heading that way. But if that two-mile-wide spigot stays choked for three months, you’re looking at a global catastrophe. History is a simple guide: keep oil above $93 for a quarter, and all 11 sectors of the US economy start to bleed out. Japan is already staring down the barrel with 70% of its imports at risk.