Developments related to Iran are causing significant volatility in global markets. Notably, both Bitcoin and gold are under downward pressure , despite their Capital different Vai in investment portfolios.
Inflation caused by rising oil prices.
The core reason stems from the sharp rise in oil prices amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. With supply threatened, energy prices are rising rapidly, raising concerns about a return of inflation.
Normally, this environment is favorable for gold. However, this time it's different. Rising oil prices are causing the market to readjust interest rate expectations, rather than focusing on the safe-haven factor.
Pressure from interest rate policy
With inflation at risk of rising again, the Federal Reserve is forced to maintain a more cautious stance. Interest rates may remain high for longer than expected, leading to higher bond yields.
This is detrimental to gold, as the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset becomes higher. At the same time, a stronger US dollar adds further downward pressure on both gold and other risky assets.
Bitcoin's "technical" uptrend
Bitcoin is not entirely immune to this situation. While the price remains higher than before the conflict erupted, much of the recent surge is considered to be technical in nature.
Specifically, many traders opened short positions expecting a sharp price drop. When this scenario didn't materialize, they were forced to close their positions, creating a rally due to a Short squeeze rather than genuine new buying pressure.
Therefore, Bitcoin's current upward structure still lacks a solid foundation and is vulnerable to reversal if key support zones are broken.
A bright spot from ETF cash flow.
Despite short-term pressures, a positive signal remains from institutional capital flows. Bitcoin ETFs continue to see steady Capital , indicating that long-term demand has not weakened.
This has helped Bitcoin maintain its current price range, even when the macroeconomic environment is not entirely favorable.
Conclude
Current developments suggest that the issue isn't about choosing between Bitcoin or gold. Both are being affected by the same factors: inflation showing signs of returning, interest rates remaining high, and global capital flows becoming more cautious .
In this context, even assets once XEM "safe havens" are not immune to the pressure to adjust.
