According to Odaily Seer, the probability of a ceasefire between the US and Iran by March 31st, as monitored by Polymarket, briefly rose to 44% before falling back to about 16%, indicating significant short-term fluctuations.
Trump had previously stated that US-Iran dialogue was progressing well and postponed military action against Iran's energy infrastructure; however, Iran subsequently denied any direct or indirect contact between the two sides, calling the statements "psychological warfare." Meanwhile, Israel announced airstrikes on Tehran, further escalating geopolitical tensions and causing a rapid reversal in market expectations.
Odaily Seer continuously focuses on the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.
