Source: insights4vc
Original title: Inside Circle 's Stablecoin Economics
Compiled and edited by: BitpushNews
Currently, Circle is still considered a reserve-income business, rather than a large-scale software or payment platform. Its profit model remains closely tied to stablecoin balances, short-term interest rates, and the share of reserve revenue retained after paying substantial distribution fees.
Fiscal year 2025 clearly illustrates this: reserve income accounted for $2.637 billion of the $ 2.747 billion in total revenue, while other income contributed only $110 million. Therefore, the company's recent financial position remains primarily driven by the economics of USDC's average circulating supply, realized reserve yield, and partner revenue-sharing agreements (particularly with Coinbase ).
Fiscal year 2025 showed strong nominal revenue growth, with total revenue and reserve income increasing to $2.747 billion from $1.676 billion in fiscal year 2024. Reserve income increased to $2.637 billion from $1.661 billion, while other income increased to $110 million from $15 million. Even so, Circle reported a net loss attributable to common shareholders of $70 million for fiscal year 2025, with a significant increase in operating expenses, including $845 million in compensation expenses.
The core debate in 2026 is not whether Circle is pursuing strategic expansion, but whether such expansion is financially viable. The key variable remains:
Whether USDC balances continue to grow, how reserve yields evolve in a low-interest-rate environment, whether distribution costs remain structurally heavy, and the rate of expansion of emerging revenue streams such as CCTP, CPN, and USYC-related activities relative to the reserve revenue base.
At this stage, Circle's strategic footprint is clearly expanding, but its core investment framework remains unchanged: it remains an interest rate- and balance-sensitive financial infrastructure company whose profitability is driven by reserve income rather than diversified platform monetization.
Circle Overview
Circle is a fintech company listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the ticker symbol CRCL. The company filed its 2025 Annual Report (Form 10-K) for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, on March 9, 2026. Circle's 2025 balance sheet shows "stablecoin holder deposits" of $74.9 billion, highlighting that the company's core economics remains focused on the scale and management of its reserve-backed stablecoins, rather than a traditional pure software model.
From an analytical perspective, Circle can be divided into four layers. First, it is a stablecoin issuer, primarily through USDC and EURC, with its liabilities pegged to outstanding stablecoins and segregated reserve assets held for users. Second, it is a reserve revenue business company, monetizing its reserve assets through interest and dividend income. Third, it is building a developer, payment, and infrastructure layer aimed at improving the utility and transaction density of its stablecoins. Fourth, it is building a broader strategic stack around an "internet finance system," including Arc, the Circle Payment Network (CPN), and tokenized asset infrastructure. However, disclosed performance shows that the current financial engine remains the reserve revenue model, rather than a scaled software or transaction fee business. Circle reported total revenue and reserve revenue of $2.747 billion in fiscal year 2025, with reserve revenue contributing $2.6368 billion, and only a relatively small portion attributable to non-reserve activities.
This distinction is crucial for valuation. Circle's strategic narrative is clearly broadening, but its revenue structure still doesn't support a story of revaluing the company primarily as a software platform. In Circle's earlier disclosures, "Other Products" accounted for only 1% of total revenue in 2024, although management later stated that other revenue accelerated significantly in 2025, reaching $37 million in Q4 2025, a year-over-year increase of $34 million. This supports a directionally positive platform narrative, but hasn't yet superseded the central role of reserve balances, reserve yield, and partner economics in shaping profitability.
Another strategic pillar is the regulatory framework. Circle disclosed that it received conditional approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) in December 2025 to establish a national trust bank called First National Digital Currency Bank, NA. Management characterized this as a significant step in strengthening USDC's infrastructure and potentially expanding its regulated custody and reserve management capabilities. Analystly, this could increase perceived regulatory durability and institutional confidence in reserve governance, but it should not be considered a disclosed profit driver at this time.
Business Model and Economics
Circle's business model is primarily driven by the interplay of two variables: stablecoins in circulation and yields earned from reserve assets. The company explicitly defines reserve income as a function of reserve balances and the rate of return on reserves. In fiscal year 2025, Circle reported reserve income of $2.6368 billion, up from $1.6611 billion in fiscal year 2024. In contrast, other income totaled $109.8 million in fiscal year 2025, compared to $15.2 million in fiscal year 2024, with $84.8 million in subscription and service revenue representing the largest non-reserve component in fiscal year 2025. This confirms that Circle's profitability remains extremely sensitive to interest rates and balance growth, even as ancillary revenue streams have begun to expand on a relatively small scale.
The reserve base was designed for conservative management. Circle disclosed that as of June 30, 2025, approximately 87% of its USDC reserves were held in the Circle Reserve Fund, a government money market fund regulated under Regulation 2a-7, managed by BlackRock, and custodied by Bank of New York Mellon (BNY). The remainder was held as cash in accounts maintained in the interests of USDC holders, primarily with global systemically important banks. Circle also stated that its reserve management framework was designed to comply with relevant regulatory requirements, including the New York State Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) guidance on USDC and EURC reserve requirements related to MiCAR. This means that reserve construction prioritizes optimizing liquidity, principal protection, transparency, and regulatory compliance, rather than pursuing portfolio risk for maximum returns.
Circle's economics is also heavily influenced by its distribution arrangements, most notably with Coinbase and other ecosystem partners. While reserve revenue is recorded on a gross basis, the company pays a significant portion of downstream costs through distribution and transaction costs. Previous disclosures indicate that these costs are tied to the generation of reserve revenue and platform balances, meaning a substantial portion of the gross reserve economics is contractually shared rather than fully retained. This is clearly reflected in the cost structure: in fiscal year 2025, Circle reported $1.083 billion in revenue after deducting distribution costs (RLDC) out of total revenue and reserve revenue of $2.747 billion, implying that a significant portion of gross realization was paid through the distribution tier before operating expenses.
This is crucial for modeling. Circle isn't simply a pure beneficiary of rising interest rates or increased USDC balances, as growth in reserve monetization doesn't translate to retained earnings on a 1:1 basis. In Circle's previous sensitivity disclosure, a change of +100 basis points from the average reserve yield of 4.26% as of June 30, 2025, implies a projected change in reserve revenue of $618 million, but also a change in distribution and transaction costs of $315 million. This suggests that a significant portion of gross reserve earnings is shared, with only the remainder flowing to RLDC before deducting operating expenses. For institutional analysis, RLDC is therefore a more useful intermediate profitability metric than simple reserve revenue, although it remains inherently sensitive to interest rates and balances.
The earnings quality reported in fiscal year 2025 was also significantly impacted by non-core and non-cash items. Circle disclosed a net loss from continuing operations of $70 million for fiscal year 2025, despite reporting adjusted EBITDA of $582 million. This discrepancy was partly due to unusually large stock-based compensation expenses linked to vesting conditions related to the IPO. In its fiscal year 2025 financial report, Circle stated that its performance was significantly affected by $424 million in stock-based compensation expenses related to IPO vesting. In its filing, Circle further disclosed that $423.8 million in stock-based compensation expenses were incurred as the commencement of trading on the New York Stock Exchange made it highly likely that the relevant RSU performance conditions would be met. This means that GAAP net income is not the best perspective for assessing the economics or profitability of the underlying unit.
The most important reason is Circle's arrangement with Coinbase, which remains one of the most significant and often underestimated aspects of its business model.
When USDC launched in 2018, Circle and Coinbase formed a consortium to govern the stablecoin. This structure dissolved in 2023, with Circle assuming full control over the issuance. However, Coinbase retained a highly attractive revenue-sharing arrangement.
Under the agreement, Coinbase receives 100% of the reserve revenue from USDC held on its own platform, plus 50% of the reserve revenue generated elsewhere. In 2024, $908 million of Circle's total distribution costs of $1.01 billion went to Coinbase. This effectively means that for every $1 Circle earns, approximately $0.54 goes to a company that neither issues USDC nor manages its reserves. By early 2025, Coinbase held 22% of the total USDC supply, up from 5% in 2022. As USDC concentration on Coinbase continues to rise, Circle's payment burden also increases accordingly.
A broader analysis concludes that Circle should currently be viewed as an interest rate-sensitive financial infrastructure company built around a stablecoin-dominated reserve revenue engine, rather than a software platform whose economics are primarily driven by subscription or trading revenue. The platform's option value is becoming increasingly clear, particularly through the expansion of Arc, CPN, and non-reserve revenue streams. However, Circle's disclosed FY2025 revenue structure still supports a framework centered on reserve balances, reserve yields, and distribution sharing mechanisms. Until the proportion of non-reserve revenue in total revenue becomes substantial, the reserve revenue model will remain the primary driver of Circle's profitability sensitivity and a central issue in its valuation debate.
In-depth analysis of USDC and EURC
The regulatory landscape for Circle's flagship stablecoin improved significantly in 2025. In the US, the White House stated that President Donald Trump signed S. 1582, the Genius Act, into law on July 18, 2025, establishing a federal framework for payments on stablecoins. Reuters also reported that the law requires issuers to back stablecoins with liquid assets such as US dollars and Treasury bills, and to disclose reserve composition monthly. Circle's FY2025 10-K describes the Genius Act's expectations regarding reserve assets (including cash, deposits, short-term Treasury securities, and repurchase agreements or reverse repurchase agreements), which it considers broadly consistent with Circle's existing USDC reserve management practices. Analystly, this consistency reinforces Circle's regulatory-first approach, although the company's profitability remains more influenced by distribution agreements and market structure than solely by regulation.
USDC
Entering 2026, USDC remains the core economic engine of the Circle model. Circle reported in its FY2025 10-K that as of December 31, 2025, the circulating supply of USDC was $75.266 billion. Circle's USDC product page subsequently shows that as of March 16, 2026, the circulating supply was $79.2 billion. Based on this, the circulating supply of USDC increased by approximately $3.9 billion, or about 5.2%, between the end of 2025 and mid-March. While this isn't an explosive leap, it does indicate continued net growth on an already strong 2025 foundation.
USDC stablecoin supply (Source: Allium)
Circle's own fiscal year 2025 data indicates that USDC experienced a year of strong growth. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the company reported that USDC in circulation increased by 72% year-over-year to $75.3 billion, while USDC on-chain transaction volume increased by 247% year-over-year to $11.9 trillion. For the full year, Circle reported an average circulating supply of $64.87 billion in USDC, up from $33.342 billion in fiscal year 2024, while the return on reserves in fiscal year 2025 was 4.1%, lower than 5.0% in fiscal year 2024. A key inference is that the company's revenue growth in 2025 was more driven by balance growth than by yield tailwinds, as the return on reserves declined rather than increased year-over-year.
Circle also disclosed operational metrics indicating that USDC is a high-turnover monetary instrument, rather than a static collateral asset. Management reported $257.5 billion in USDC minting and $226.1 billion in redemptions in fiscal year 2025. Based on third-party market capitalization data, the stablecoin market share at the end of the period was 28%, and Circle had 6.8 million meaningful wallets at the end of the period, according to its own definition. The scale of minting and redemption activity relative to the ending supply indicates significant transaction flow, which is likely related to exchange settlement, liquidity routing, collateral management, and DeFi-related traffic, rather than a simple buy-and-hold reserve asset profile. However, Circle does not publicly provide a clear breakdown of USDC usage across these categories, limiting the precision of attribution analysis.
The payment narrative surrounding USDC is gaining credibility, although it is still in its early stages relative to reserve revenue models. Visa has publicly launched USDC settlement capabilities in the US for select issuer and acquiring partners, enabling the settlement of certain VisaNet obligations in USDC on supported blockchains outside of traditional banking hours. Circle emphasizes that this is evidence that USDC can function as a continuous settlement asset, not just a crypto-native transaction tool. Even though its current scale is still small relative to Visa's total network transaction volume, its analysis is significant: it is one of the clearest public signals yet that USDC is positioned as a component of the real-world back-end payments infrastructure.
Distribution is also expanding through a partner-led ecosystem of consumers and small and medium-sized enterprises. On December 18, 2025, Circle announced a partnership with Intuit to enable USDC functionality in products including TurboTax, QuickBooks, and Credit Karma. Strategically, this strengthens Circle's argument that it aims to push USDC beyond exchanges and crypto-native users into mainstream financial workflows. However, the economic monetization path remains unclear. Circle has not disclosed pricing, revenue sharing, or revenue-sharing mechanisms tied to this integration, so the existence of distribution progress should not be confused with proof of high-margin revenue payments.
Another strategic issue is market structure. Circle and Polymarket announced on February 5, 2026, that Polymarket would transition from bridged USDC (USDC.e) on Polygon to native USDC over the next few months. This development is significant because it illustrates Circle's efforts to reduce its reliance on bridged liquidity and increase the footprint of natively issued USDC across chains. Native issuance improves redemption clarity, reduces some operational complexities surrounding packaged or bridged forms, and is more in line with a regulatory-priority model. At the same time, the need for this transition also highlights a structural challenge facing stablecoins: fragmented liquidity across bridges and chains remains a friction point in the adoption process, not just a technical footnote.
In summary, USDC's best characteristic is its hybrid nature. First, it is a primary exchange and venue settlement asset; second, it is a high-turnover on-chain USD used for collateralization, liquidity routing, and crypto market pipelines; and third, it is an emerging institutional settlement track within selected integrations. Evidence of growth in payment tracks is improving, particularly through Visa settlements, Intuit integration, and Circle's broader infrastructure development. However, the dominant economic driver disclosed by Circle remains reserve income from USDC reserves, rather than explicit transaction fee monetization from payment activity.
EURC
Even though the EURC remains relatively small in the direct economic provisions, it is strategically significant. The European regulatory context is particularly relevant here. The MiCA ((EU) 2023/1114 Regulation) came into effect in 2023, rules for asset-backed tokens and electronic money tokens applied from June 30, 2024, and a broader framework fully implemented from December 30, 2024. This sequence is important because euro-denominated stablecoins became “regulated” earlier than many adjacent crypto asset services, thereby increasing the ability of regulated issuers and exchanges to support compliant euro stablecoin products and enhancing institutional confidence.
Circle reported that as of December 31, 2025, the circulating EURC was 309,608,590. By March 16, 2026, Circle's EURC page showed a circulating supply of €382.8 million. This represents an increase of approximately €73 million, or about 23.6%, from the end of the year to mid-March. In absolute terms, this is still small relative to USDC, but the growth rate is significant and indicates that EURC is gaining momentum from its still relatively small base.
The broader market size for euro-denominated stablecoins remains very small. A Reuters report in September 2025, citing data from the Bank of Italy, stated that the total amount of euro-denominated stablecoins was only about $620 million, while global stablecoin issuance at that time was approximately $300 billion. Even considering subsequent growth, Circle's reported circulating supply of €382.8 million in EURC as of March 2026 suggests that EURC is likely one of the euro-denominated stablecoins with the most dominant supply. Nevertheless, without access to the latest, high-quality consolidated market dataset as of March 2026, and without such data found in the reviewed materials, I would refrain from stating precise market share figures.
Circle positions EURC as compliant with the MiCA standard, usable on Avalanche, Base, Ethereum, Solana, and Stellar, and states it releases monthly certification reports. Strategically, EURC's value to Circle may exceed its current direct financial contribution. It helps anchor Circle's regulatory posture in Europe, supports an on-chain euro-dollar workflow parallel to USDC, and provides the company with options as European stablecoin policy priorities strengthen further. A Reuters report up to the end of 2025 also indicates that European institutions and policymakers are increasingly focused on alternatives to establishing a US-led stablecoin infrastructure, supporting the aforementioned options argument.
Over the next 12 to 24 months, EURC is more reasonably viewed as an enabling layer than a standalone profit driver. Its base remains below €500 million, and Circle does not separately disclose revenue specific to EURC. For EURC to become financially meaningful, three things are likely required: substantially larger euro-denominated float, evidence of payments and financial adoption outside of crypto-native capital markets, and a distribution path that avoids some of the heavy economic burdens of the USDC model. In other words, EURC may already be strategically important, but it does not yet appear to be financially core.
2025 Financial Analysis and Key Indicators
Circle's fiscal 2025 financials reinforce this view : the company's primary and most important business is reserve revenue. The company reported total revenue and reserve revenue of $2.747 billion for fiscal 2025, up from $1.676 billion in fiscal 2024. This fiscal 2025 figure comprises $2.637 billion in reserve revenue and $110 million in other revenue, compared to $1.661 billion and $15 million respectively in fiscal 2024. Therefore, the year-over-year step-up growth was largely driven by the expansion of reserve revenue, rather than by a broader structural shift towards software or transaction fee monetization.
Cost structure is equally important for underwriting frameworks. Circle reported distribution and transaction costs of $1.662 billion for fiscal year 2025, up from $1.011 billion in fiscal year 2024. Operating expenses increased from $492 million to $1.179 billion, and compensation expenses were $845 million, compared to $263 million in the same period last year. This confirms that the overall profitability from higher reserve income was largely shared through partner economics and then further absorbed by the significantly increased operating cost base.
A useful way to define operating leverage is to look at revenue after deducting distribution costs (RLDC), rather than just position revenue. Circle disclosed $1.083 billion in RLDC for fiscal year 2025, up from $659 million in fiscal year 2024, with RLDC margins remaining at 39% for both years. This stable margin is important: it indicates that distribution costs have expanded roughly proportionally with the expansion of reserve revenue, limiting the extent to which higher rates and larger balances translate into structurally better retention economics. In other words, Circle demonstrated growth, but did not show substantial improvement in its core economic share of post-distribution retention.
Clearer signals of operating leverage are emerging in management’s adjusted framework, rather than in GAAP headlines. Circle disclosed adjusted operating expenses of $508 million for fiscal year 2025 and provided guidance for adjusted operating expenses of $570 million to $585 million for fiscal year 2026 (using a revised definition starting in Q1 2026). This guidance suggests that Circle plans to continue investing in growth initiatives rather than shifting to a near-term harvesting model. In other words, even with favorable reserve income conditions, management appears willing to maintain a higher expense base to build products, infrastructure, and distribution.
The balance sheet also supports a specific interpretation of this business model. As of December 31, 2025, Circle reported $75.068 billion in cash and cash equivalents segregated for the benefit of stablecoin holders, and $74.913 billion in stablecoin holder deposits. This structure aligns with a reserve-backed issuance model built around segregated balances, rather than a traditional loan-based balance sheet model. Analystly, this makes Circle structurally closer to a narrow-spread business than a high-profit-sharing fintech company, with the key constraint being that the reserves are described as being held for the benefit of token holders and designed to provide bankruptcy remoteness under Circle's disclosed structure.
First Quarter 2026 Preview and Fiscal Year 2026 Bull, Benchmark, and Bear Market Forecasts
Entering the first quarter of 2026, the interest rate environment is not as favorable as the peak conditions Circle enjoyed earlier in the cycle. On March 16th and 17th, 2026, the effective federal funds rate was 3.64%, while the SOFR on March 17th, 2026, was 3.65%. Circle's own sensitivity framework uses the average yield of 3.64% in December 2025 as a reference point. This means that the reserve return environment at the beginning of 2026 is significantly lower than the 5.0% reserve return rate disclosed in fiscal year 2024, and closer to the level at the end of 2025. This implies that balance growth will have to do more work if Circle hopes to maintain reserve income growth.
The start of Q1 2026 is at least directionally favorable for balances. Circle disclosed that as of March 16, 2026, USDC circulation was $79.2 billion, up from $75.266 billion reported at the end of 2025. EURC also increased from $309.6 million at the end of the year to €382.8 million as of March 16, 2026. This setup suggests that the average stablecoin balance in Q1 may have improved compared to the exit levels in Q4, partially offsetting the lower yield mechanism.
Management's guidance for fiscal year 2026 indicates continued structural diversification, but without altering the fundamentals of its economic model. Circle guides other revenue at $150 million to $170 million, RLDC margins at 38% to 40%, and adjusted operating expenses at $570 million to $585 million. The signal here is twofold: first, management anticipates growth in non-reserve income; second, even according to its own guidance, this income remains small relative to the reserve income engine.
Bull Case : In a bullish scenario, USDC circulation continues to expand in Q1 and Q2, supported by increased institutional settlement usage, higher on-chain turnover, and incremental distribution success. Under this outcome, reserve income remains resilient even if realized yields remain at the short end of the spectrum in late 2025 and early 2026. Distribution costs will also rise, but post-distribution retention economics will grow sufficiently to absorb planned higher operating expenses while maintaining margins at or near guidance levels. This is essentially a case of "balance growth offsetting interest rate compression." This is plausible given the current balance trend and the still-expanding ecosystem, but still depends on continued trading volume and adoption momentum.
Base case : In the base case, as trading activity and DeFi usage return to normal, USDC circulation growth slows to a low single digit quarter-over-quarter. Reserve returns are anchored at the short end of the range, around 3.5%, roughly in line with EFFR and SOFR. Under this setting, reserve income may remain stable or grow slightly with average balances, but distribution costs will remain structurally high as the partner revenue-sharing model persists. RLDC margins will therefore remain within the company's guidance range of 38% to 40%, with moderate revenue progress but limited structural margin expansion.
Bear Case : In a bearish scenario, USDC circulation stagnates or declines due to risk-averse flows, exchange-driven outflows, or market share pressures, while interest rates fall further from already low levels. According to Circle's own sensitivity framework, lower yields will reduce reserve income and mechanically reduce some distribution costs, but the net effect will still negatively impact RLDC. This becomes more significant as Circle enters fiscal year 2026 with a higher program fee base, meaning weaker balances and yields will expose the business more directly to partner concentration and operating cost rigidity.
Strategic positioning and competition
Circle is best suited to be underwritten as a regulated digital currency network operator, with two layers: one is the core of issuance and reserve management, which is financially dominant today; and the other is a broader boundary of applications, interoperability, and developer services that is strategically important but not yet economically dominant. This distinction is important because Circle's valuation, profitability sensitivity, and risk profile remain closely tied to monetary policy and the stablecoin market structure until non-reserve income becomes substantially substantial.
The most prominent example of strategic option value to date is the Circle Payment Network (CPN). Circle launched the concept in April 2025 and disclosed that as of February 20, 2026, 55 financial institutions had joined, 74 were undergoing qualification reviews, and annualized transaction volume over the past 30 days had reached $5.7 billion. These are significant early indicators of network formation and institutional interest. However, without disclosure of revenue sharing rates, income contributions, or profit status, the CPN is more strategically justifiable than financially.
The second reliable non-reserve vector is interoperability tools. Circle disclosed that it launched CCTP V2 in March 2025, and that trading fees can be generated when clients select the fast transfer feature. This is one of the stronger non-reserve monetization paths because it prices specific technical capabilities, rather than simply hoping to convert usage into value. Even so, Circle's disclosed fiscal year 2025 trading revenue line remains small, so its current contribution is still negligible compared to reserve revenue.
Circle's acquisition-driven expansion into adjacent sectors through Hashnote and USYC is also strategically noteworthy. Circle describes USYC as an on-chain representation of money market fund shares primarily used for collateralization in the digital asset market and discloses that it earns fees, including performance fees. This is a plausible adjacent sector for USDC, as it addresses the need for interest-bearing collateral and margin that stablecoins themselves cannot fully resolve. However, the market still lacks separate public disclosure of USYC's assets, revenue, or profitability, so it is currently more of a strategic cornerstone than a fully underwritten, independent driver.
In terms of competition, Circle's most direct competitor among dollar-denominated stablecoins remains Tether. A Reuters report in February 2026 stated that USDT's issuance was approximately $184 billion, highlighting Tether's substantial scale advantage. However, Circle's differentiation remains clear: the transparency of disclosure as a public company, reserve asset constraints more closely aligned with emerging regulations, and a stronger position within regulated institutions and payment networks. In this sense, Circle's competitive advantage lies less in absolute size and more in institutional credibility and regulatory transparency.
Another competitor is PayPal's PYUSD, which PayPal announced on March 17, 2026, would be available in 70 markets worldwide. PYUSD is strategically relevant because it is embedded in a global consumer and merchant payment distribution network, offering a very different market entry advantage compared to Circle's primarily exchange and infrastructure-based footprint. Circle's current strengths lie in deeper USDC liquidity, greater scale, and stronger crypto market integration; PYUSD differentiates itself through native wallets and merchant distribution within mainstream payment platforms.
In Europe, the competitive landscape is likely to become more challenging over time. Reuters reports that a group of major European banks, including ING, UniCredit, and later BNP Paribas, have formed a company planning to launch a euro-denominated stablecoin in the second half of 2026, while policymakers have publicly discussed strengthening the euro-denominated digital currency to counter the dollar's dominance. This poses a substantial medium-term competitive threat to the EURC, as bank-led euro stablecoins can combine regulatory credibility with embedded corporate and banking distribution. However, as of March 2026, this remains more of a future competitive risk than an immediate supply-side replacement.
in conclusion
Circle's fiscal year 2025 results further confirm the fundamental nature of its reserve revenue model. While USDC trading volume and new projects (such as CPN) improve the strategic narrative, their financial importance cannot yet compare to reserve revenue. Therefore, the core evaluation framework should still focus on: balance growth, interest rate sensitivity, and the distribution cost structure linked to Coinbase .
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