Unusual betting activity appeared on Polymarket ahead of Trump's post, with both S&P 500 and crude oil futures showing unusually high trading volumes.

According to Mars Finance, on March 24th, Trump posted on Monday that the US and Iran had had "very good and productive conversations" on resolving the Middle East war. However, prior to this, 10 recently opened accounts on the prediction market platform Polymarket had made large bets that the US and Iran would reach a ceasefire by March 31st or April 15th, totaling approximately $160,000. If the ceasefire were to materialize by the end of the month, these accounts would have profited over $1 million. After Trump's post, these accounts had already seen unrealized profits exceeding $300,000. One of these accounts had previously bet over $85,000 on a US strike against Iran; its current bet on a ceasefire, given the scale, timing, and past performance, has led to speculation that it represents an insider with access to undisclosed diplomatic information—that is, someone connected to US and Iranian political circles who possesses undisclosed information on diplomatic progress. Meanwhile, about 15 minutes before Trump's post, both S&P 500 electronic mini futures and WTI crude oil futures experienced isolated abnormal volume spikes, with no apparent catalyst in the market at the time. Following Trump's statement, S&P 500 futures surged more than 2.5% in pre-market trading, while crude oil futures fell nearly 6%. Anyone who bought stock futures at that moment and simultaneously short crude oil futures could have made a huge profit within minutes. The SEC and CME Group declined to comment. Polymarket announced on Monday that it was upgrading its insider trading rules, explicitly prohibiting trading using stolen confidential information, trading using illegal insider information, and trading when users have the ability to influence the outcome of events. (Jinshi)