Billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin options will expire on Deribit on Friday at 08:00 UTC.
On Friday, billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin options, or Derivative contracts, will expire on the Deribit crypto exchange . Traders may want to note that the momentum from this expiration could push the market price of BTC to a very specific level: $75,000.
Deribit, the world's largest crypto options exchange, will settle $14.16 billion worth of Bitcoin options contracts on Friday at 08:00 UTC. This means that nearly 40% of the total open interest – the USD value of all active contracts on the exchange – will expire within approximately 48 hours. On Deribit, an options contract represents one BTC.
Options are contracts that allow you to bet on whether the price of an asset, such as BTC, will rise or fall. A call Call Option is a bet that the price will increase, while a put option is a bet that the price will decrease. Traders buy options to profit from price fluctuations, or sell (Short) options to earn income while accepting the risk that the price may move in a direction favorable to the buyer.
This is why this maturity date is important.
According to Deribit's data, the "max pain"—the point at which most contracts expire worthless (like losing lottery tickets)—is at $75,000.
Therefore, this level can Vai as a "magnet," according to Deribit's Chief Commercial Officer, Jean-David Péquignot .
“With Bitcoin currently trading near $71,000, the $75,000 Max Pain level represents a pull factor. Historically, this encourages delta hedging by market makers, which can then push the price toward a level where most options expire and become worthless,” Péquignot told CoinDesk.
Here's how it works. According to the maximum pain theory, option sellers—typically large funds, institutions, or market makers with ample Capital —control or influence the spot price toward the "pain" point to limit payouts to buyers and thereby maximize losses for them. This occurs through normal transactions in the spot or futures market, rather than being a guaranteed manipulation.
This mechanical buying and selling activity often pushes the spot price closer to its pain point, which in the case of Bitcoin is $75,000.
Although the maximum pain is a familiar concept in traditional markets, its impact on crypto remains controversial. However, Deribit still marks this level as a potential "magnet." Adding to the intrigue, some analysts have identified $75,000 as a key resistance level; a break above this could see Bitcoin enter a full-blown bull run.
Controlled maturity.
Quarterly expirations typically trigger large position adjustments and hedging flows. However, the upcoming expiration is likely to proceed normally, without excessive volatility.
This is reflected in the decrease in the implied volatility index.
“In recent sessions, we’ve seen a narrowing of implied volatility (IV), with both BTC and ETH DVOL decreasing by around 6 points. This suggests the market is pricing in a controlled expiration rather than an immediate surge in volatility,” Péquignot said.
He added that market data shows traders are not pursuing a breakout as geopolitical instability in the form of a potential war with Iran persists. He specifically pointed to institutional selling of Call Option at higher price levels (above the current spot price) as evidence of moderate bullish sentiment. Traders typically sell Call Option above these levels to collect additional premiums on their existing spot market positions.
“The Put/Call ratio for Bitcoin options remains healthy (0.63), but the concentration of Call Option sell orders suggests there is a resistance ceiling from institutions as traders have been consistently selling off their positions to collect premiums while waiting for geopolitical factors to cool down,” he noted.
Overall, the major expiration at $75,000 Vai as a "magnet" at a remarkable time: Bitcoin had held its ground significantly amid the volatility stemming from the Iran war, maintaining strength even as stock markets fluctuated and energy markets remained volatile.
