XLM price surged 14%, hitting a key resistance level; breaking through it will be a decisive moment.

Stellar (XLM) has surged approximately 14% and is currently approaching a key resistance zone at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of $0.1776. On the 12-hour chart, XLM is trading around $0.1777 as of March 25, 2026.

A bullish divergence signal appearing on the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, along with the dominant Longing position in the Futures Contract market, is supporting this upward momentum. However, the 61.8% Fibonacci level, which XLM was previously rejected at, could have a clear negative impact if this happens again.

Divergence signals indicate renewed buying pressure, supporting XLM price increase.

Currently, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator is above the zero line with a value of 0.07. It's noteworthy that while XLM price consistently hit lower Dip in January and February, the CMF formed progressively higher Dip during the same period.

This is a prime example of bullish divergence, formed between February 18th and March 23rd. Price and momentum are moving in opposite directions, signaling weakening selling pressure even as XLM continues to decline . The CMF trend line connecting its Dip shows a steady upward movement from the -0.25 region at the end of January to its current value above 0.

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When the CMF indicator is above 0, it means that total buying volume is exceeding selling volume. For the bullish scenario to be sustained, the CMF needs to remain above 0, and ideally should head towards the 0.10-0.20 range. If the CMF falls below 0, this indicates that buyers are gradually losing ground at this resistance level.

Buyers dominate the XLM Futures Contract market.

Although CMF shows bullish signals, the liquidation map of XLM perpetual Futures Contract on Binance presents a more complex picture. The current price of $0.1775 is within a large concentration of leveraged Longing positions across the entire chart.

At the price of $0.163, the total value of Longing contracts at risk of liquidation amounts to $4.30 million. This area contains highly leveraged Longing positions, which could be forcibly sold if the price falls to this level. Conversely, above the current price, Short positions are ready to be liquidated if there is a breakout, which could cause the price to rise even more sharply.

The dominance of Longing positions in the Futures Contract market suggests that many traders believe XLM could continue to rise. However, this concentration also carries significant risk. If the 61.8% Fibonacci level continues to push the price down and momentum shifts to a bearish direction, Longing positions accumulated between $0.1700 and $0.163 could be wiped out en masse, triggering a chain liquidation.

XLM price faces an old challenge.

The Fibonacci chart, drawn from the January high near $0.2228 to the February Dip at $0.1469, identifies the 61.8% level at $0.1776. XLM had previously tested this area. In mid-February, the price of XLM only briefly touched the 61.8% level before being pushed back, falling further to the 50% level at $0.1710, and then retesting the 38.2% level near $0.1618.

Currently, XLM has returned to the 61.8% resistance level after a 14% increase in the last two days. Simultaneously, XLM is forming a Falling Wedge pattern, creating additional resistance. The breakout target is at $0.2010, meaning the price needs to rebound by an additional 25.09% from the breakout point. XLM nearly invalidated this pattern, but with the current recovery momentum, the pattern remains valid.

To reach the target, XLM needs to break through and close a convincing candle above $0.1776. The next Fibonacci level at 78.6% at $0.1859 will be the next test area before a move toward $0.2010 becomes feasible.

The opposite scenario is quite clear: If pushed down at the resistance zone of $0.1776 and then the candle closes below the support zone of $0.1586, the massive concentration of Longing positions around $0.1630 will be wiped out. At that point, the $4.30 million in leveraged Longing positions will face the risk of liquidation, further amplifying the downward momentum. The strong support zone below is the Dip of $0.1469 – the zero mark on the Fibonacci chart.

XLM will either break through the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level and move towards $0.2010, or the old scenario will repeat itself, with the price being rejected and falling sharply to the $0.1630 area due to sell-off.