Trump Media & Technology Group, the operator of Truth Social, is recently expanding its reach into the cryptocurrency business and preparing to launch an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) and a "prediction market." Truth Social also functions as a channel for President Trump's remarks, drawing significant attention from investors due to the immediate transmission of policy signals to the market.
In particular, this platform has established itself as a channel for President Trump's "personal comments" on major administration issues, such as military action related to Iran, to be posted in real time. Critics point out that in a climate where political events and market volatility are increasing simultaneously, the convergence of social media remarks and the expansion of the crypto business is amplifying both conflict of interest controversies and regulatory risks.
War breaks out in Iran on February 28… The justification is 'nuclear,' but the message is inconsistent
According to reports, the United States entered into a war with Iran in coalition with Israel on February 28. However, explanations regarding the motives and objectives of the war have been inconsistent. While Iran’s attempts to develop nuclear weapons were once cited, this conflicts with President Trump’s claim regarding last June’s airstrike that it aimed to “destroy Iran’s nuclear enrichment capabilities” and “stop the nuclear threat,” and was a “great military success.”
This was followed by objections that the war was proceeding without an 'official declaration of war.' Amidst a debate over legitimacy—given that the constitutional authority to declare war lies with Congress—President Trump heightened market uncertainty on TruthSocial by alternating between hardline messages, such as "If Iran responds, we will strike with unprecedented force," and messages stating that "now is the time for peace."
From “unconditional surrender” to “in talks”… Remarks on allies and Hormuz also conflict
Since the outbreak of the war, President Trump's posts have been a mix of exaggerated reports of military successes, warnings of further strikes, and criticism of allies. They also included unverified content, such as a post announcing the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, claims of "destruction and scorched earth in a single day," and claims of sinking Iranian naval vessels. On March 6, he posted a message stating, "There is no agreement with Iran other than 'unconditional surrender'."
However, on March 23, he posted a message to the effect that there had been “very productive conversations over the past two days” and that he had ordered a five-day moratorium on striking energy infrastructure. Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, there was a mix of nuances—such as “we do not want help from allies”—arguments that “security of the strait should be handled by other countries,” and warnings that power plants would be struck if Iran continued its threats. These inconsistent remarks are interpreted as factors that amplify geopolitical risk premiums and stimulate simultaneous volatility in crude oil and cryptocurrencies.
Oil and Bitcoin Rise Together Amid War Risks… WTI Up 21.5%, BTC 9%
Since the war, the prices of crude oil and Bitcoin (BTC) have risen together, but the increase in oil prices was greater. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose approximately 21.5% from about $72 per barrel on March 2 to about $88 recently. During the same period, Bitcoin (BTC) increased by about 9%, rising from around $66,000 on February 28 to about $71,000.
Despite President Trump stating that "oil prices will fall rapidly once the nuclear threat ends," oil prices have not fallen from their peaks. The market believes that the timing of the war's end, the actual scale of damage, risks in the Strait of Hormuz, and coordination among allies are propping up oil prices. At the same time, Bitcoin (BTC) has risen as its nature as an "alternative asset" has been highlighted amidst macroeconomic uncertainty; however, observers suggest that the phase of increased volatility may continue given the reduced predictability of policy statements.
🔎 Market Analysis
As TruthSocial's parent company (Trump Media) expands into the crypto business (ETFs, prediction markets, etc.), the link between 'policy messages (social statements) → market fluctuations' has become more directly strengthened.
President Trump’s remarks regarding a war with Iran are alternating between hardline and conciliatory stances, stimulating geopolitical risk premiums and simultaneously amplifying the volatility of oil and Bitcoin.
- Even with the same risk event, the intensity of the reaction was greater for oil prices (supply chain and Hormuz risks) than for BTC (alternative asset sentiment) (Article figures: WTI +21.5% vs BTC +9%)
💡 Strategic Points
- Checking 'Statement Risk': Policy signals from TruthSocial are difficult to predict, so managing event-driven volatility (sharp fluctuations) is key (pre-setting position size and stop-loss/take-profit criteria).
- Correlation Classification: In the event of geopolitical risks, crude oil is the primary beneficiary (due to concerns about supply disruptions); while BTC may move in tandem based on the 'alternative asset' narrative, the magnitude and timing of the rise may differ.
- Regulatory/Conflict of Interest Check: The combination of a social platform operator and crypto financial products (ETFs, prediction markets) requires monitoring as headline risks could be amplified due to regulatory issues (fair disclosure, market impact, conflicts of interest).
📘 Glossary
- ETF (Exchange Traded Fund): A fund designed to track the price of a specific index or asset and traded on an exchange like a stock.
- Prediction Market: A market for betting on or trading the outcomes of events such as elections, wars, and economic indicators (reflecting probability in price)
- Geopolitical Risk Premium: The additional risk cost attached to asset prices when concerns about supply disruptions increase due to war, sanctions, or strait blockades.
- Strait of Hormuz Risk: The Impact of Rising Tensions in the Key Middle East Oil Shipping Route on Global Oil Prices
💡 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q.
Why is the expansion of Truth Social's parent company's crypto business important to the market?
TruthSocial is a channel through which President Trump's remarks spread rapidly, meaning his statements can immediately influence market sentiment. This is noteworthy because if the parent company of such a platform expands into financial crypto businesses like ETFs and prediction markets, the connection between 'messages (policy signals) → price fluctuations' becomes more direct, potentially leading to increased volatility.
Q.
Why does the war in Iran (geopolitical issue) affect Bitcoin and oil prices simultaneously?
Conflicts in the Middle East are likely to drive up oil prices by amplifying concerns over crude oil supply instability (particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz route). Bitcoin may rise in tandem with oil prices as it is perceived by some investors as an "alternative asset" when traditional financial and political uncertainty increases. However, as the article suggests, the magnitude of the increase may be greater for oil prices (WTI approx. +21.5%, BTC approx. +9%).
Q.
What risks do President Trump's 'inconsistent' remarks create for investors?
When hardline and conciliatory messages alternate, market confidence regarding the scope, duration, and potential for escalation of the war diminishes, leading to increased volatility. In particular, when policy signals spread immediately in the form of social media posts, sharp price fluctuations can become frequent, making risk management—such as managing position size and setting stop-losses and take-profits—important.
TP AI Important Notes
The article has been summarized using a language model based on TokenPost.ai. Key points of the text may be omitted or inaccurate.
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