Let's talk about BTC(BTC) first.
The price is currently hovering around 71,000, with significant resistance around 72,000, making it difficult to break through in one go. If it fails to break through and continues to fall, the pullback could be quite sharp, potentially testing levels like 65,500 or 62,400 again.
Historically, a bear market isn't a single point in time, but rather a period of time—roughly 10 months of repeated bottoming out. Looking at the current environment, there are virtually no positive factors; in fact, the market is more bearish: expectations of interest rate cuts have failed to materialize, and there's even a possibility of rate hikes. Coupled with the situation in the Middle East and the high levels of US stocks, the overall outlook is more bearish than bullish.
From a weekly perspective, 60,000 is most likely not the bottom.
Let's talk about Ethereum (ETH).
On the daily chart, the price has been testing the 2200 resistance level for the past two days and has now formed a triangle pattern, indicating that it will soon choose a direction.
Simply put, there are two possible scenarios: either it breaks through 2200 and holds, continuing its push towards the previous high of 2400; or it fails to break through and experiences another pullback.
Therefore, it's not recommended to chase the price around 2200; there's no need to gamble on a breakout. If it can fall back below 2000 later, then it's safer to consider swing trading.
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Let me briefly talk about the macro aspect.
There are signs of easing tensions in the Middle East, and the market is waiting for policy announcements, but there has been no substantial progress so far.
After this wave of events ends, figures of Trump's stature will likely release favorable policies for the midterm elections, at which point market sentiment may truly pick up. So, right now, it's a "wait" phase.
Having discussed the macroeconomics, let's take a look at how gold prices are trending!
The overall assessment can be summarized in one sentence: in the short term, the market may experience a downward move first.
This rebound is nearing its end, and it will most likely end today or tomorrow. It's time to start considering short opportunities.
The logic is not complicated—the height of the first rebound basically determines how far the entire rebound can go.
The key is to look at one level: if gold can break through 46 today and hold above that level, then next week will likely see a pullback, but this also suggests that the possibility of hitting a new low in April is unlikely.
However, if it fails to reach 46 this week, or even falls below 444, then this wave is basically just a small rebound, and there is a high probability of a deeper round of decline later, or even a new low.
If some negative news comes along, it's not impossible for it to fall to 4300.
By the way, the common codes for gold on exchanges are XAU, XAUT, and PAXG, which are essentially assets pegged to gold.
However, no matter how things unfold, one thing is certain: in the first half of April, there will likely be a good opportunity to long.
What we need to do now is patiently wait for this first wave of rebound to finish before finding a more comfortable entry point.
Finally, let's take a look at the recent hot topics.
TAO has really been on fire these past few days. As I mentioned before, its logic is linked to the AI field, so it's worth keeping an eye on.
The altcoin market is quite chaotic, with many speculators manipulating prices wildly. Projects without solid fundamentals should be ignored entirely; there's no need to even look at them. The projects with the best future potential are those similar to "tokenized US stocks," which at least have some foundation, unlike the current worthless cryptocurrencies.
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Here are some ideas for popular cryptocurrencies:
After its previous sharp drop, SIREN has now started a strong rally. On-chain, the token distribution hasn't changed much; it's just the project team manipulating the market, pumping and dumping – a common practice in the futures market. Upside potential could be seen at the previous high, and it might even reach $10. The strategy is to use small positions to capitalize on the potential gains, such as opening a small position with 10x leverage. If you can't hold on, cut your losses and aim for a larger profit.
TAO can be summed up in two words: bullish. The first target is 380, and it's already reached over 370, and it's still slowly climbing with strong momentum. The second target is 450, which is basically just a matter of time. You can enter around 350 now, but remember to halve your position size and don't chase the price with a heavy position.
Everyone knows the tricks used when BSB new coins are launched—many people assume it will "pump and dump before pumping." The big players do the opposite, exploiting this psychology. Those who were already trapped and cut their losses are okay, but if they try to average down and hold on, they're more likely to get liquidated. How high it goes depends on where the short positions get liquidated. The core message is: the more people shorting, the easier it is for the bulls to profit.
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Finally, let's talk about Fan Tokens.
Many people are only focused on the World Cup, but they should be paying more attention to the fan coin sector. There are too many projects; choosing the right one is crucial.
Brands like CHZ are too large and have limited elasticity; Santos, Lazio, and Porto also perform only moderately well.
I'm more optimistic about three: OG, ALPINE, and ASR. You'll understand if you look at their weekly charts; these are the ones that have the potential to rise several times or even ten times in the short term.
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In summary, the overall environment is still volatile and slightly bearish. Don't rush to buy; waiting for pullbacks and opportunities is more important than blindly chasing the market.
Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; caution is advised when entering the market. This is just my personal opinion, not advice, and is for sharing purposes only.
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