The bond market is flashing red.
After a brief intermission on hopes that peace talks with Iran would progress, the 10Y Note Yield is up to 4.42%.
Mortgage rates are up to a fresh 7-month high, markets are now pricing-in potential rate HIKES, and the S&P 500 has erased -$800 billion today.
The bond market is, by far, the biggest problem for the US right now, much bigger than the energy price situation.
We have said it before and we will say it again:
We cannot afford a 5% yield on the 10Y Note.
https://twitter.com/TKL_Adam/status/2037257126226079855

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Jack Dorsey announces a $1 million project to give away free Bitcoin.

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Editor's Note: This article argues that what truly drives oil prices is not just whether the conflict ends, but "when the tipping point will be crossed."

In the nearly four-week-long conflict with Iran, the oil market is experiencing a classic case of "time-based pricing." The release of strategic reserves has delayed the impact but cannot eliminate the supply gap; disruptions to tanker transport and delayed production recovery are causing inventory pressure to accumulate into the future. Once the critical mid-April mark is passed, the price mechanism will shift from "buffered volatility" to "gap-driven repricing."

More importantly, the game structure itself is also changing. The conflict is no longer characterized by "escalation followed by deterioration..."