This market movement, frankly speaking, is a shakeout . A drop wipes out the longs, a rise wipes out the shorts—the longs are now almost entirely wiped out. Data shows that even if it drops to 61,000 , it would only trigger a few billion more in liquidations; but if it rises to 76,000 , the scale of short liquidations would be even greater. Given this structure, how the market will play out next is quite interesting.
US stocks plummeted last night, but BTC didn't follow suit, showing relative resilience . However, the key issue is that the 70,000 level failed to hold , weakening the short-term structure, and the market is currently mainly consolidating. A true trend-driven rebound hinges on whether the conflict has truly ended —not just one-sided rhetoric. The market will only respond if both sides clearly demonstrate a de-escalation.
Technical Analysis Today:
BTC
The daily chart has broken below the key support level of 69K , ending the previous consolidation between 70K and 71.5K and entering a second bottoming phase after the breakdown . There are currently no clear signs of a bottom. Moving averages are weakening across the board, with all short- and medium-term moving averages broken, and the 14-day moving average (approximately 71K) becoming a strong resistance level. Simultaneously, trading volume has increased during the decline, a typical "breakout with increased volume," indicating concentrated selling pressure. The MACD has also death cross again, strengthening bearish momentum, and the short-term trend remains bearish.
If the rebound encounters resistance at 69.5K-70.5K , it will likely continue to test lower levels, with an initial target of 65K . Only a renewed surge in volume and a firm hold above this key resistance level will allow for a structural correction. Intraday, watch for resistance at 69.5K-70.5K and support at 66.5K-67.5K .
ETH
The market is weakening in tandem, having broken below the key 2100 level and entering a double-bottom formation. Moving averages are in a bearish alignment, and trading volume is increasing with the decline, indicating insufficient support. If a short-term rebound to 2120-2150 fails to break through, it's highly likely to test 2000 or even lower , with a minimum support level around 1800. Intraday resistance is at 2070-2110 , and support is at 1970-2010 .
Needless to say, altcoins are still experiencing a liquidity crisis coupled with a stampede-like market . When BTC drops, altcoins plummet; when BTC trades sideways, altcoins continue their slow decline. There's virtually no buying support for smaller coins, with a significant gap in order books. Even when there are rebounds, they mostly provide a window for trapped investors to exit , rather than a genuine opportunity.
Current market situation: mainstream products are testing the bottom, counterfeit products are being cleared out at an accelerated pace, and market sentiment continues to decline.
During this phase, don't rush to buy the dips; timing is more important than direction. Opportunities will gradually emerge when the market truly falls to a point where no one wants to watch the market anymore.
Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; caution is advised when entering the market. This is just my personal opinion, not advice, and is for sharing purposes only.
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