Using your position to bet on a great recession, the US stock market has been rising for decades without experiencing a decent bear market, it feels like it has really reached its peak. The war may just be accelerating the cycle by one or two years. There are no assets in this world that only rise and never fall. The fact that Nvidia and Micron's earnings reports were followed by a surge followed by a rapid decline already gave me a sense of impending liquidity shortages in the crypto. Not to mention that several major cryptocurrencies are set to launch this year, and the only way to increase liquidity is to cut interest rates. However, the current inflation situation in the United States makes it hesitant to cut interest rates, and the market is already pricing in a rate hike. I don't know how the Federal Reserve will resolve this predicament. My bet is that it won't, so the stock market will fall first. If the Fed ignores inflation and chooses to cut interest rates to save the stock market, the stock market will rebound in the short term, and my short position will lose money. Therefore, I added a long in SOFR3 as a hedge. SOFR3 is the benchmark interest rate for US Treasury bonds. If the Fed chooses to protect inflation and doesn't cut interest rates, or even raises rates, then the stock market will continue to crash, the short position will profit, and SOFR3 will lose money. The asymmetry here is that the price of SOFR3 in March 2027 was even lower than the current price, meaning that as long as the Fed doesn't raise interest rates, my SOFR3 will be profitable by next year. My judgment is that there won't be an interest rate hike, because raising interest rates won't create more oil, so it won't solve the fundamental problem. The above are some thoughts on opening positions yesterday.