Bitcoin may fall below $60,000: the payback period could extend to 2027, with whale selling pressure exacerbating downside risks.

According to a report by Cointelegraph on March 28th, as reported by Mars Finance, the latest data shows that if Bitcoin falls further below $60,000, the market's recovery to its historical high may be delayed until 2027. Analysis indicates that Bitcoin has already retraced approximately 48% from its 2025 high of around $126,000. Historically, for every 10% increase in the decline, the recovery period extends by an average of 80 days. If $60,000 is currently the bottom, it is estimated that it will take approximately 300 days to complete the recovery; however, if it continues to fall to the $40,000-$45,000 range, the overall retracement will expand to over 60%, and the recovery period may extend to approximately 440 days, with the timeline pushed back to after the second quarter of 2027. On-chain indicators also show that the bottom has not yet been confirmed. The Composite Market Index (BCMI) is currently around 0.27, higher than the historical bottom range (approximately 0.12-0.15), indicating that there is still room for further decline. In terms of fund flows, continued selling by whale is exacerbating the pressure. Data shows that large-scale selling has reached its highest level in nearly 18 months, while liquidity in both the spot and futures markets has weakened. Analysts believe the market is currently in a deep adjustment phase, and if the macroeconomic environment remains tight (including high interest rates or even rate hikes), it will further slow the recovery of the crypto market.