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ToggleOn March 28, local time, the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia was attacked simultaneously by Iran with six ballistic missiles and 29 drones. A KC-135 aerial refueling tanker caught fire and was damaged. At least 15 US soldiers were injured, five of whom were in serious condition. This is the largest attack on US forces since the start of the war between the US and Iran.
Meanwhile, the Bushehr nuclear power plant has been attacked for the third time in 10 days. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi expressed "deep concern" and called on all parties to exercise maximum military restraint to prevent the risk of a nuclear accident from spiraling out of control.
Iranian nuclear scientist Mohammad Reza Kia and his wife were killed in the airstrike, and it is widely believed that the targeted killing of nuclear personnel was carried out by Israel or the US military.
The Pentagon has prepared four "final blow" plans.
According to a classified US military assessment report obtained by Axios , the Pentagon is currently advancing four ground force operation plans as options for a "final blow" against Iran. These include...
- Kharg Island : Invasion or blockade of Iran's main oil export hub
- Larak Island : Capture and control this strategic island.
- Abu Musa Island and two nearby islets : Deploying ground forces to secure the strait passage.
- Seizure of oil tankers heading east : Blockade and seizure of Iranian oil export vessels
The most anticipated aspect is the ground operation deep inside enemy territory, aimed at directly seizing Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium. The White House is assessing the deployment of at least 10,000 additional combat troops, including approximately 3,000 from the 82nd Airborne Division and two Marine Corps units. President Trump has not yet made a decision, and White House officials continue to describe the ground troop operation as a "hypothetical scenario."
The U.S. Central Command simultaneously released the results of Operation Epic Fury one month into the war, stating that it had struck more than 11,000 targets, conducted more than 9,000 combat sorties, destroyed more than 150 Iranian naval vessels, and sunk all 11 active warships in the Gulf of Oman. The number of Iranian missile and drone salvos had decreased by 70% to 85% compared to the beginning of the war.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard responded strongly, warning that if the United States and Israel continue their attacks on Iran's industrial system, the subsequent retaliation will be "beyond their imagination." The Iranian president also emphasized in a public statement that Iran will not preemptively strike, but will certainly retaliate, and that the "contradictory" statements and actions of the United States are the fundamental reason why Iran cannot trust them.
The Strait of Hormuz becomes a tollbooth
Iran has effectively turned the Strait of Hormuz into a "diplomatic tollbooth," selectively allowing ships to pass based on bilateral relations. Currently, seven countries have been granted passage, including China, Russia, India, Iraq, Pakistan, Malaysia, and Thailand.
For countries not on the "friendly list," the Strait remains effectively blocked. The probability of "the Strait of Hormuz resuming normal navigation by the end of April" on Polymarket has dropped to 24%, a significant decrease from 77% on March 10. Market trading volume reached $1.34 million, indicating that funds betting on a prolonged blockade are continuing to flow in.
The crypto market was suppressed by the war.
Following news of the attack on Saudi Arabian bases, the cryptocurrency market immediately declined, with Bitcoin falling from $67,500 back to around $66,500. The total market turnover over the past 24 hours was approximately $125 million.
The macroeconomic outlook is equally pessimistic. CME FedWatch shows that the market has priced in a 48.6% probability of a Fed rate hike in 2026, almost on par with the probability of a rate cut, indicating that traders are reassessing the long-term impact of war-induced inflation on monetary policy.
