Ethereum is striving to overcome the six-month "curse," but risks remain.

Ethereum (ETH) price is showing a slight increase of 2.93% in March, its first monthly gain since August 2025. From September to February, each month closed in the red, creating a six-month losing chain that saw ETH lose over 50% of its value.

With only a few days left in March, the question now is whether Ethereum can maintain this upward momentum, or whether selling pressure will cause the entire month to turn red and extend the losing chain to seven months.

March started positively, but the second half took a different turn.

The monthly profit chart paints a fairly clear picture. September 2025 saw a 5.59% decrease. October saw a 7.15% decrease. November plummeted 22.2%. December saw a slight decrease of 0.83%. January 2026 lost 17.7%, and February saw a further 19.6% drop.

The +2.93% increase in March is actually quite isolated, as this figure reflects the negative developments in the latter half of the month.

On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum's price has been trading within a descending channel since March 16th, when it peaked at $2,380. This channel has pulled ETH down to a low of around $1,970, a drop of approximately 18% from its mid-March peak. Currently, ETH is trading around $2,020, still within the descending channel, and the downward trend has not yet stopped.

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ETH 's gains were mainly concentrated in the first half of March, with the latter half gradually returning those gains. If the downtrend continues to push ETH price close to the lower edge, the final days of this month will determine whether ETH 's chain will be broken.

There are two notable indicators suggesting that sellers are gaining the upper hand as March draws to a close.

The whales are selling off, and the retail investors who bought when prices fell are gradually disappearing.

Ethereum whale wallets (excluding exchange wallets) held approximately 122.91 million ETH just 48 hours ago. However, this number has dropped to 122.73 million ETH, equivalent to over 180,000 ETH being sold. Worryingly, this drop is occurring precisely as the price of ETH is retreating close to the lower edge of a descending channel.

The Money Flow Index (MFI), a volume-weighted momentum indicator, is also signaling less optimistic conditions. From March 8th to March 28th, on the 4-hour chart, the price of Ethereum trended upwards, but the MFI gradually declined during the same period.

This bearish divergence means that buying pressure during price drops is weakening, even though ETH price has been in the green for the entire month. Each subsequent price drop attracts less buying pressure than the previous one. As even whales sell and Dip -buying weakens, the confidence cushion below ETH 's current price is becoming increasingly thin.

If the overall market trend continues to be negative, the two indicators above suggest that Ethereum will struggle to maintain its March price gains.

Ethereum price forecast and the $1,970 range.

The most important level is currently the $1,972 USD area (the $1,970 USD zone). This is a support zone that has held firm since the beginning of March.

If the ETH price closes the 4-hour candle below $1,970, the strongest support zone (0.618 Fibonacci level) will be breached, and there is a possibility that the ETH price will slide further towards the lower edge of this descending channel.

At that point, the next levels to watch are $1,910 and $1,830. If the price of ETH breaks above $1,830, it will confirm a downtrend from the channel, and there is a possibility of a further 10% drop towards the $1,650 region. However, this drop may take more time to occur.

On the upside, ETH needs to regain and hold above the $2,050 level to alleviate short-term pressure. If it breaks through this level, the upper boundary of the price channel near $2,110 will be a real test of ETH's strength.

Currently, the $1,970 mark will determine whether Ethereum achieves its first green month in seven months or continues to fall sharply to the $1,650 region.