Bitcoin has not yet bottomed out, analyst says

Bitcoin may be entering its final stress phase, but a definitive market bottom has not yet formed, according to an analysis by CryptoQuant senior analyst Julio Moreno. Moreno noted that while the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator for long-term BTC holders is approaching a critical inflection point, it does not yet signal a final bottom. In past cycles, market bottoms were established only after the NUPL for long-term holders turned negative, indicating a state of net unrealized loss. He stated that this period of testing investor confidence has historically lasted anywhere from six to 277 days. "In this cycle, there has been a rapid adjustment, with the profitability of long-term holders plummeting from 58% to 3% since the peak in October of last year," Moreno said. "However, the NUPL currently remains above zero, making it difficult to consider this a full capitulation zone." He explained that a market bottom forms not merely when investors are under pressure, but when accumulated profits are wiped out and positions turn into losses. "As long as the NUPL for long-term holders does not turn negative, the likelihood of an early bottom is limited," he added.