According to ChainCatcher, crypto analyst Leshka.eth believes that Ethereum's recent price action is exhibiting a technical pattern similar to a historical "bull trap," indicating a risk of further decline in the short term, potentially targeting $1200, a drop of approximately 40% from current levels. Technically, the Supertrend indicator on the daily chart for ETH previously failed to sustain its bullish signals twice, subsequently triggering significant pullbacks of 45% and 48% respectively. A similar structure is now appearing again at the key level of approximately $1990; a break below this level could trigger a new round of accelerated decline.
Both fundamentals and funding conditions are weak. On the macro level, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and recessionary expectations are suppressing risk appetite, while market expectations for a Fed rate cut have been significantly postponed. In terms of fund flows, the US spot Ethereum ETF recently saw a net outflow of approximately $300 million, and on-chain demand has fallen to a 16-month low. On-chain data shows that the number of large holding addresses (≥10,000 ETH) has stagnated since peaking, and "whale" and "shark" addresses in the 1,000-10,000 ETH and 100-1,000 ETH ranges have also shown no significant signs of increasing their holdings, generally exhibiting a distribution and wait-and-see attitude. In the absence of strong buying support, if key support levels are breached, ETH prices may face further downward pressure.
