With the market in a continuous decline, Bitcoin may break its historical record this time!
The March drop may not seem significant, but the sentiment is different: the current monthly return is approximately -0.76%, and if it doesn't recover by the end of the month, it could very well match the historical record of "six consecutive months of decline." Experienced investors understand that this kind of movement isn't just weakness, but a signal that sentiment has been pushed to its limit. The last similar instance was in 2018, when the price halved from its peak and fell for six consecutive months before a direct reversal and a five-month surge, with gains exceeding 200%.
So the key now isn't "how much it's fallen," but rather—if sentiment continues to deteriorate and next month closes lower, that would be a new record; but if it stops falling amidst extreme pessimism, it's more like the starting point of the next rebound. That's often how the market works: opportunities begin to emerge in the most desperate times.
This decline can be seen as the third phase of the upward trend that started from 76,000 .
The key question now is whether this is just a pullback or the start of a new round of decline.
Logically, there are two possible scenarios: the first is a normal pullback from the 60,000 to 76,000 rise ; the second is a continuation of a larger-scale decline (the trend from the high point down), which is the beginning of a new major decline.
The key level to watch is around 63,400 . This position is crucial, as it represents a retracement of the previous upward move and also corresponds to a key proportional level in the current downward structure. If the price finds support and rebounds near this level, it's more likely a "correction"; however, if it breaks below this level and continues to decline , it's almost certain that a new round of decline has begun.
Structurally, the current decline has formed three phases: key support is around 63,300 , and key resistance is around 69,300 . If it falls to 63,300 and breaks through, it indicates that this is only the "first phase" of the decline, and further declines are expected. However, if it rebounds back to around 69,300, it is more likely that these three phases have been completed, and this round is just a correction rather than a trend decline.
Looking at a larger timeframe, there's no need to be too concerned about how the monthly chart closes. Even if the market is weak in the short term, the probability of a rebound next month remains high . March already showed a clear intention to support and push prices up, but this was disrupted by the sudden geopolitical conflict. Once the situation eases, oil prices fall, and market sentiment recovers, a rebound could begin at any time.
In the short term, it's still crucial to monitor the macro environment. If the conflict escalates further and US stocks come under pressure, BTC might retest the $60,000 level . Conversely, as long as $60,000 isn't decisively broken, this area could be a worthwhile trading range . You could try a small long position, and then cut your losses if it breaks below that level.
The overall approach can be simplified: the second quarter is more likely to see a rebound, and the strategy long on buying on dips.
But it's crucial to remember that the biggest risk in the market right now isn't price fluctuations, but uncertainty . Many people are still clinging to two extreme expectations: either the conflict will end quickly and the market will fully recover, or the conflict will continue and risky assets will collapse. But the reality is—the direction hasn't been determined yet.
Therefore, the safest approach is not to guess, but to respond: if uncertain, take a small position; if there is no signal, wait.
Those who survive in the long run are never the ones who guess the right direction, but those who know how to control the pace.
Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; caution is advised when entering the market. This is just my personal opinion, not advice, and is for sharing purposes only.
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