As the Iran–Israel–U.S. conflict enters day 31, demand for puts remains elevated for hedging and directional plays. Trump warned today the U.S. could “completely obliterate” Iran’s power and oil infrastructure if a deal is not reached and the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. 1W and 1M 25-delta risk reversals dropped to −13.5 and −10.6 vols before rebounding to around −8.6 and −9 vols, respectively, with 25-delta RR remaining negative across all tenors.

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Jack Dorsey announces a $1 million project to give away free Bitcoin.

MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor asserts that Bitcoin has won the global narrative war, specifically naming BIP- […]
The article, "Michael Saylor Warns BIP-110 is the Biggest Threat to Bitcoin; Four-Year Cycle is Dead, Institutional Capital is the Real Protagonist," was first published on BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain ABMedia media.

Michael Saylor warns that BIP-110 is the biggest threat to Bitcoin; the four-year cycle is dead, and institutional capital is the real protagonist.

Editor's Note: This article argues that what truly drives oil prices is not just whether the conflict ends, but "when the tipping point will be crossed."

In the nearly four-week-long conflict with Iran, the oil market is experiencing a classic case of "time-based pricing." The release of strategic reserves has delayed the impact but cannot eliminate the supply gap; disruptions to tanker transport and delayed production recovery are causing inventory pressure to accumulate into the future. Once the critical mid-April mark is passed, the price mechanism will shift from "buffered volatility" to "gap-driven repricing."

More importantly, the game structure itself is also changing. The conflict is no longer characterized by "escalation followed by deterioration..."

Oil prices are approaching a critical point; what will happen in mid-April?

A positive RR indicates a bullish sentiment (higher call IV), whereas a negative RR suggests bearish sentiment (higher put IV).