To put it bluntly, the current market trend is still dominated by bears.
The daily chart structure for BTC remains unchanged, still in a "second-stage oscillation" within a downtrend. The price has been consistently below the 30-day moving average (MA30), posing a risk of a potential double top reversal similar to that seen at the end of January. Not breaking below the lower edge of the range doesn't guarantee safety; rather, it indicates the market is preparing for another directional move. Therefore, going long at the current level is not cost-effective; any rebound is more like an opportunity for short sellers to enter the market.
Looking at the 4-hour and 12-hour charts, the overall structure is a consistent weak consolidation, with the price slowly declining around the 12-hour MA120. There are few trend-driven opportunities, and the key focus is on preventing a pullback. If the price can regain a foothold in the 69855-71911 range, the market may consolidate for a while longer, and there's even a chance for a rebound to the 74K-75K range. However, this is essentially a rebound within a consolidation pattern, not a reversal.
For ETH , the rebound from 1748 has lasted for over 50 days and is basically nearing its end. There are two possible scenarios going forward: either another short-term surge to new highs (coinciding with BTC's push towards 76K), or a direct correction. A deep pullback or a break below key levels would essentially signal the end of the rebound and a return to weakness. The 1938 level is particularly important; a decisive break below it would make a significant downward move difficult to avoid.
The situation is even more straightforward for altcoins . The TOTAL3 has already broken below a key structural level, but confirmation is still needed. Going to heavily buy the dips at this level carries extremely high risk. Even if there is a rebound, it will most likely be a pullback to confirm resistance, such as returning to the upper edge of the original range or near the moving average, maintaining a short logic. In the medium term, altcoins as a whole haven't bottomed out; the structure hasn't been repaired, and funds haven't flowed back in, making it "weaker than ever."
The biggest misconception in the market right now is that people are still waiting for the "altcoin season." But the reality is that the last round of opportunities has already passed in on-chain memes and niche circles, and it may not happen again in mainstream coins on exchanges. Many people are still waiting for the right opportunity, but the opportunity has already moved on.
Specifically, companies like HYPE essentially rely on platform revenue and buybacks, similar to BNB but leaning towards a decentralized exchange. In a bear market, they rely on buybacks to support valuation, while in a bull market, they rely on increased trading volume to release volatility. In the short term, valuation is more crucial; in the long term, the platform's ability to grow sustainably matters. Considering a price below 30 would be more prudent.
The DeFi sector is also showing signs of divergence: UNI is benefiting from the combination of wallet access and institutional asset on-chaining; AAVE is upgrading but security issues remain a concern; ONDO is becoming more like an on-chain brokerage, following the RWA route; conversely, companies like ENA, with weakening data and unlocking pressure, should be viewed with caution.
Overall, volatility is likely to increase this week, especially given external disturbances. Regardless of whether the market moves up or down, once a direction is chosen, the pace will be rapid. At this stage, the most important thing for contract trading is not direction, but discipline—always use stop-loss orders and don't stubbornly hold on to losing positions.
Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; caution is advised when entering the market. This is just my personal opinion, not advice, and is for sharing purposes only.
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