The current overall market environment doesn't require much complicated explanation:
BTC is still in a major downtrend. The bear market has lasted for about half a year, and based on past patterns, it usually takes another 4-6 months before a true bottom is reached, most likely in the fourth quarter of this year. The logic of the halving cycle has not yet been disproven, and the market has not given any signals of an "early bottom," so it is very difficult to expect a direct reversal and bull run now.
The macro environment is also following the usual pattern. If the US stock market follows the pattern of a midterm election year, a pullback of around 15% is actually quite normal. If the S&P 500 returns to around 6000, I will start considering long-term positioning, and add to my positions in batches if it falls further. Commodities are weak, mainly because the US dollar is too strong, and funds are more willing to flow back to dollar assets. Gold and most commodities are suppressed, and future trends will depend on the situation in the Middle East and changes in oil prices.
The core issue remains monetary policy—only when tightening truly causes problems for the economy will the market begin trading "towards easing," marking the start of a new round of market activity. However, this process won't happen immediately; the short term will be a period of "endurance."
Returning to the market, BTC is currently still in a weak and volatile phase, and the rebounds are more of a fluctuation within the existing structure than a trend reversal.
The logic behind yesterday's buy order around 2010 for ETH is sound. The rebound has reached above 2100. The short-term resistance is at 2120, and a break above that could see it reach 2150. However, in a bear market, the upside is limited, so it's more prudent to buy on dips.
The recent rise in gold ($XAU) from 4100 can be viewed as a three-stage rebound. The key lies in the 4700-4740 range: if it breaks through, the upside potential will open up, with the first stage potentially reaching around 4900, and the entire rebound even having a chance to challenge 5200; if it fails to break through, then the first stage is basically over, and a deeper pullback is expected, but this pullback will present a better opportunity to buy on dips.
CRCL: The logic here is also very simple. We are currently in a correction phase after the rise from 49.9 to 136. After the correction ends, there will likely be another rise of the same level. Pay close attention to the 83-85 area: if it slowly grinds to this point, it is more like a bottoming process, and the subsequent rise will be stronger; if it drops rapidly to this range in a short period of time, it may not be the end, and we need to observe further.
In summary: now is not the time to fight for direction, but rather for patience and timing. Before the major timeframes provide clear signals, avoid heavy positions and making predictions; wait patiently, and the opportunity will surely come later.
Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; caution is advised when entering the market. This is just my personal opinion, not advice, and is for sharing purposes only.
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