The market is no longer buying into Trump's verbal ceasefire, and the probabilities of multiple US-Iran war scenarios have remained unchanged.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, Trump has recently been frequently raising expectations for US-Iran peace talks verbally, claiming to have made contact with Iran. Today, he again claimed that the Iranian president had requested a ceasefire, which was quickly refuted by Iran. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is "firmly in their hands" and "will not be opened to the enemy of this country because of the absurd performance of the US president." Multiple forecasting markets show that Trump's recent verbal statements are no longer effective. Among them: the probability of a "US-Iran ceasefire by the end of April" remains at 38%, still at a recent low, indicating that the market is not optimistic about a rapid progress in the ceasefire; the probability of "the Strait of Hormuz opening to navigation by the end of April" has dropped further, currently at 20%, also at a recent low, indicating that the strait is firmly controlled by Iran and has become a weapon in the economic war against the United States; the probability of "US ground troops entering Iran by the end of the month" remains high, currently at 55%, indicating that the US military continues to increase its troop presence in the Middle East.