Last night was the most puzzling part of the Iran War yet.
Just as oil and bond markets had calmed down, President Trump has sent oil prices soaring again. US oil prices have now risen over +$1/hour since President Trump's speech at 9 PM ET.
It began with Iran's President stating they have "no enmity" towards Americans and ended with President Trump escalating the Iran War, the exact opposite of what we have seen over the last 2 weeks from both sides.
It simply does not add up.

BREAKING: US oil prices surge above $112/barrel, now up +13% on the day.

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Editor's Note: This article argues that what truly drives oil prices is not just whether the conflict ends, but "when the tipping point will be crossed."

In the nearly four-week-long conflict with Iran, the oil market is experiencing a classic case of "time-based pricing." The release of strategic reserves has delayed the impact but cannot eliminate the supply gap; disruptions to tanker transport and delayed production recovery are causing inventory pressure to accumulate into the future. Once the critical mid-April mark is passed, the price mechanism will shift from "buffered volatility" to "gap-driven repricing."

More importantly, the game structure itself is also changing. The conflict is no longer characterized by "escalation followed by deterioration..."