Oil prices surged as the Iran–Israel–U.S. conflict continued to escalate. In global perps. open interest, xyz: BRENTOIL and xyz: CL (Hyperliquid HIP-3) are among the top 10, ranking 8th and 9th with $546M and $526.48M, respectively.

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MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor asserts that Bitcoin has won the global narrative war, specifically naming BIP- […]
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Michael Saylor warns that BIP-110 is the biggest threat to Bitcoin; the four-year cycle is dead, and institutional capital is the real protagonist.

Editor's Note: This article argues that what truly drives oil prices is not just whether the conflict ends, but "when the tipping point will be crossed."

In the nearly four-week-long conflict with Iran, the oil market is experiencing a classic case of "time-based pricing." The release of strategic reserves has delayed the impact but cannot eliminate the supply gap; disruptions to tanker transport and delayed production recovery are causing inventory pressure to accumulate into the future. Once the critical mid-April mark is passed, the price mechanism will shift from "buffered volatility" to "gap-driven repricing."

More importantly, the game structure itself is also changing. The conflict is no longer characterized by "escalation followed by deterioration..."