After analyzing this round of trends, things become clearer—
Currently, the market is still in a medium-term downward channel, with the overall rhythm being "weak fluctuations and bottoming out after a decline." Recent fluctuations are essentially due to the back-and-forth pull between expectations of the US-Iran situation and market sentiment, making it a typical news-driven market rather than a trend reversal.
After surging 70K, the price retreated, leaving a long upper shadow and closing with a small bearish candle. This structure is typical: there was a rebound, but it wasn't strong enough, and the key resistance level wasn't truly established. On the moving average side, the short-term MA7 and MA14 have started to flatten out, but the price is still being suppressed by the MA30, indicating that the bulls haven't yet established effective support. The trading volume also reflects this – lower volume during rebounds and higher volume during declines, suggesting that funds are more focused on short-term speculation rather than sustained market entry.
However, there are still short-term opportunities. The overnight surge above 70,000 broke the previous triple top pattern, showing signs of a potential W-bottom formation. If this pattern is confirmed, there's a chance to test 78,000 this week. But remember, this rebound is likely just a "pullback within a downtrend," and the weekly downtrend remains unchanged. April is expected to be a period of consolidation and weakness.
For intraday trading, the first resistance level to watch is 69K-70K, while the support level is 67K-66K. The market is expected to trade within this range.
Looking at ETH, its overall movement follows BTC, but it's relatively more stable. The key short-term support level remains 2050-2100, with 2150-2200 being the first resistance level. If it can hold above 2200, there's a chance to test 2260-2300. However, the overall trend remains one of range-bound trading, not a one-sided market.
The division within the counterfeit market is quite obvious—
- There are opportunities, but they don't benefit everyone. Cryptocurrencies experience explosive growth every day, but most people can't catch up or hold onto them.
- $XPL is currently trading sideways around 0.11, suppressed by the MA120. If it retraces to around 0.1, it would be a more comfortable entry point, with upside potential of 100%.
- $DOGE is weak, so we can only wait patiently; $LTC is more like an ambush zone.
- $SOL generally follows the overall market trend, with limited volatility.
- There are some opportunities for trading in the $CHZ range, so it's worth keeping a close eye on it.
Currently, there are three main lines to consider when looking at counterfeit products:
1) BSC series: These are the stocks that rebounded the most strongly in this round, with the most active short-term funds and a clear indicator of market sentiment. 2) RWA sector: Stocks like CFG, ONDO, and RSR have fundamental support, and funds are gradually accumulating positions. 3) AI sector: TAO may have a second high point, and if RENDER holds its key position, there are expectations of follow-up gains; this is a sector worth tracking closely.
Summary of the altcoin market: You can try a small position, but don't invest heavily. Just secure a position first to avoid miss the pump.
Finally, let's talk about timing—the market has recently shown a clear "vampire effect," with more funds concentrating on BTC. Frequent trading of contracts is not advisable; it's better to wait for key levels before making a move.
At this stage, the competition is not about who earns more, but about who can survive longer and hold onto their gains.
Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; caution is advised when entering the market. This is just my personal opinion, not advice, and is for sharing purposes only.
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