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ToggleHopes for peace in the Middle East are being ruthlessly torn apart by the harsh realities of geopolitics. The two-week temporary ceasefire agreement reached between the United States and Iran under Pakistani mediation is now on the verge of complete collapse due to a huge gap in the understanding of the "ceasefire's scope" between the two sides.
Trump echoes Israel's stance: Lebanon is a "separate conflict."
The trigger for this diplomatic storm stemmed from the tough statements made by high-ranking officials in the United States and Israel. According to CCTV News, US President Donald Trump stated in an interview on April 8 that the US-Iran ceasefire agreement only covered the direct conflict between the two sides and did not extend to Lebanon and Hezbollah. Trump downplayed Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon as a "separate conflict."
The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated this position, emphasizing that the Israeli military would continue its strikes against Hezbollah military facilities in Lebanon. In fact, after the agreement was reached, Israel not only failed to cease fire but also launched a large-scale air campaign.
Iran responds strongly: a ceasefire in Lebanon is the core condition for negotiations.
In response to the US and Israel's strategy of "dividing the front," Iran quickly and strongly reacted. According to the Wall Street Journal, Iran has conveyed an extremely tough stance to the US through mediators such as Pakistan: the progress of the peace talks scheduled to begin on April 10 in Islamabad will "highly depend" on the implementation of the ceasefire in Lebanon.
Iran has emphasized that ending hostilities in Lebanon is one of the core conditions of its "10-point peace plan." Iranian officials have also issued a stern warning that if Israel continues to attack Lebanese and Iranian targets, Iran reserves the right to launch a devastating retaliation against countries in the region, including Israel.
The Strait of Hormuz becomes a bargaining chip, casting a shadow over the negotiations on the 10th.
What has alarmed global markets even more is Iran's hint that it might use the Strait of Hormuz as a bargaining chip for ultimate retaliation. Although Iran had previously agreed to provide "coordinated safe passage" with technical restrictions during the two-week ceasefire, it has made it clear that if the situation in Lebanon continues to deteriorate, this concession, which is crucial to global energy supplies, could be withdrawn or tightened at any time.
Whether the Middle East conflict will usher in a glimmer of peace or plunge into a deeper abyss, the Islamabad talks on April 10 will be a decisive historical turning point.
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