From morning until now, I've been watching the market while eating melons, and I've gone through both the weekly and daily charts.
The current market situation is actually quite simple—it's waiting for a trendline to choose: whether it will gradually rise or break through directly. The pace is uncertain, but the direction is clear: the overall trend remains bullish.
There's no need to overthink the spot market; just hold and wait for a breakout. For contracts, the strategy remains primarily to buy on dips. If you want to short against the trend, be sure to use small positions and exit quickly; don't hold on long long. Like the short positions from a couple of days ago at the highs—take profits and leave. Essentially, it's about not daring to hold onto counter-trend positions. This kind of operation is fine; making a profit for a portion is enough, there's no need to obsess over taking the full profit.
From the market perspective
#BTC surged and then retreated, continuing to fluctuate around 70,000. The resistance at 73-74K remains significant. Until a strong breakout with volume occurs, this can only be considered a rebound. There is short-term support, but medium-term pressure remains, resulting in a "short-term bullish, medium-term bearish" structure. Only a breakout above 74K with significant volume will open up further upside potential; otherwise, it will likely continue to trade within the range.
For intraday trading, watch for resistance at 72.5K to 73.5K and support at 71K to 70K.
#ETH is clearly weak, with insufficient rebound strength. There is heavy resistance at 2300-2350. Overall, it is still in a weak recovery phase, following the upward trend but not strongly.
The operational approach is similar: look at the resistance level above and the support level below, and avoid chasing highs.
The situation is even more straightforward for counterfeit goods: a combination of concentrated capital and negative news has led to an overall weak market.
The recent drop in TAO wasn't entirely unexpected. As mentioned before, it was highly likely to form a "Double Top" pattern, with an initial upward move followed by a sharp decline. We also warned of the risks after it reached the target price.
If you consistently follow the rhythm, you're unlikely to buy at a high price.
The RWA line has been relatively decent recently. CFG is performing well, and ONDO and SYRUP are also worth watching. However, there are signs of large shareholders selling off in ONDO, while SYRUP seems cleaner, and its weekly chart shows it's just starting to recover.
As for some older projects, such as ZEC before and TAO now, the script is actually quite similar: once there are changes in the core team, pricing issues are likely to arise.
However, there is still support below TAO. In the short term, it is more affected by sentiment and is unlikely to collapse directly.
Finally, let me summarize the overall approach:
At this stage, it's essentially a period of consolidation and waiting for direction. Short-term trading is possible, but avoid being too aggressive.
Before the market trend becomes clear, minimizing unnecessary activity is more important than anything else.
Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; caution is advised when entering the market. This is just my personal opinion, not advice, and is for sharing purposes only.
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