According to ChainCatcher, macro analyst Jordi Visser stated that despite widespread market expectations that the crypto industry is entering a bear market, Bitcoin and Ethereum are less than 10% away from the key level that could trigger a trend reversal.
He points out that if Bitcoin breaks through $76,000 and Ethereum rises above $2,400, it could signal the start of a year-long upward trend. Visser believes the probability of a US recession in the short term is low, a judgment consistent with the pricing of the prediction market Kalshi, which currently estimates a recession probability of about 24% in 2026.
He also pointed out that with inflation remaining high and traditional markets (such as the S&P 500) lacking significant growth momentum, funds may continue to flow into asset classes with yield potential. However, market opinions remain divided. Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently stated that Bitcoin's lows for the year may not have been reached yet, and the price may retest or even fall below the $60,000 range. Visser, on the other hand, emphasized that the market should not be simply divided by bull and bear cycles, but rather judged from the perspective of longer-term structural and liquidity changes.
