According to Odaily Seer, the probability of Polymarket predicting WTI crude oil will reach $110 in April 2026 has increased significantly, now reaching 67%, up 13% in one hour and 20% in 24 hours. As of now, the total trading volume of Polymarket's "WTI crude oil April 2026 price" event contract has exceeded $24 million.
The rules for this event contract are as follows: if the highest price of any 1-minute candlestick chart for the most active month of WTI crude oil futures during April 2026 is equal to or higher than the listing price, the market will determine it as "yes"; otherwise, the market will determine it as "no". Previously, the rules for the WTI crude oil March price prediction event contract were: if the official settlement price of the current most active month (near-month) of the CME crude oil futures contract on any trading day is equal to or higher than the listing price up to the last trading day of March 2026, the market will determine it as "yes"; otherwise, the market will determine it as "no".
Trump tweeted today: "Effective immediately, the U.S. Navy, the most powerful navy in the world, will begin a blockade of any vessel attempting to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz. I also order the U.S. Navy to search for and intercept every vessel in international waters that has paid 'transit fees' to Iran. Anyone who has paid such illegal transit fees will not be allowed safe passage on the high seas, and we will begin destroying the mines Iran has laid in the Strait. Any Iranian that dares to fire on peaceful vessels will be blown to bits! Iran knows better than anyone how to end the war that has destroyed their country. Their navy is gone, their air force is gone, their air defenses and radar systems are useless, Khamenei and most of their leaders are dead—all because of their nuclear ambitions. The blockade is about to begin, and other countries will join in. We will not allow Iran to profit from this illegal extortion. They want money, but more importantly, they want nuclear weapons."
Odaily Seer continuously focuses on the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.
