"BTC OG Insider Whale" Agent: The ceasefire makes us even more bearish; there's never been a precedent for such a conflict being resolved in two weeks.

According to Mars Finance, on April 12th, Garrett Jin, an agent of "BTC OG Insider Whale," published an article stating that the ceasefire is poison coated in sugar. Why does the ceasefire make us more bearish rather than more optimistic? The market is trading on the logic that a short-term ceasefire will evolve into lasting peace. However, we believe the probability of this is less than 10%. This is based on the fact that Iran's conditions are incompatible with US demands, no ceasefire clause was implemented within 24 hours, and there is no precedent in history for a conflict of this scale to be resolved through a two-week suspension. The actual probability is likely even lower than 10%.