Oil prices are back at $100 — and this time, the US naval blockade is the main reason.

Brent crude oil prices surged 7.9% as the US imposed a maritime blockade on Iranian ports.

This has created one of the most volatile and geopolitically tense oil landscapes in recent times.

Washington just dealt a major blow – the oil market is in turmoil.

Brent crude is at a very critical juncture. After surging to $115-116 per barrel in mid-March, prices gradually declined over the past three weeks before today's 7.9% bullish candlestick completely changed the picture.

The reason is clear. On April 13, 2024, the U.S. Central Command announced a maritime blockade of all vessels entering and leaving Iranian ports, effective immediately. This order applies to all ships, regardless of nationality or ownership, throughout the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.

The key point is that the Strait of Hormuz remains open – this strait ensures that about 20% of the global oil supply is not immediately disrupted. However, tightening access to Iranian ports has made oil supply scarcer, and shipping premiums on Gulf routes have begun to rise sharply.

The current situation is still evolving rapidly, and it is unclear how long the lockdown will last. The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament has hinted at the possibility of retaliation, while warning the market to "enjoy the current gains."

Daily Chart: Market Wakes Up After Three Weary Weeks

From mid-October to February, Brent crude oil prices gradually rose in the $60-$72 range (green box). Then, at the end of February, a geopolitical shock caused oil prices to almost double in just a few weeks, soaring to $115-$116 (red box).

Since that peak, the daily chart has consistently shown progressively lower highs (yellow circles) – a typical sign of a distribution pattern, indicating that the upward momentum has weakened. The MACD on the daily chart remains below 0 with red histogram bars, while the RSI remains in the neutral zone around 55-60, much lower than the overbought levels during the March rally.

Today's bullish candle is a very noteworthy signal that cannot be ignored. However, the trend on the daily timeframe has not yet fully recovered, and the MACD has not yet crossed above to signal a price increase – meaning this rally needs further confirmation to be certain.

4-hour chart: Short-term buyers are entering the market.

Looking more closely at the 4-hour timeframe, the signals are more positive. The MACD has just crossed above the bullish zone with green histogram bars appearing (yellow circles), while the RSI has recovered quite strongly from the near-oversold region around April 7-8 (blue ellipse).

This shift aligns with recent breaking geopolitical news. However, this movement remains within a bearish structure on the daily chart – a technical pullback within a general downtrend – and requires further confirmation.

Three resistance zones are shaping the upward trend. The first test zone is at $103-$105, which is also the current price. Beyond that, the $108-$110 zone will be the next resistance, and the $113-$116 level (red box) is the strongest resistance above.

On the downside, the $93-$96 zone (green box) is a crucial support level – it has repeatedly helped reverse price movements and is a boundary that buyers cannot afford to lose. If this zone is breached, the $78-$80 mark will be the final major support, bringing the price back to the pre-shock level.

The most unpredictable factor right now remains the volatility stemming from breaking news. This market is reacting very strongly to information from both sides, and no technical analysis can accurately predict if Iran unexpectedly retaliates or a diplomatic turning point occurs. Therefore, caution and staying updated on the news are just as important as any technical indicator at this time.