The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is reportedly investigating unusual oil Futures Contract that occurred just minutes before President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social about talks to de-escalate tensions with Iran.
This investigation follows weeks of pressure from Democratic lawmakers, who have noted unusual activity in the crude oil market related to the president's announcements.
Hundreds of millions of dollars were wagered before Trump posted the message.
On March 23, 2024, traders executed buy and sell orders for Brent and WTI crude oil Futures Contract totaling an estimated $500 to $580 million in just one minute, between 6:49 and 6:50 a.m. Eastern Time.
About 15 minutes later, Trump posted on Truth Social about the effective negotiations with Iran aimed at de-escalating tensions.
Then, oil prices plummeted, yielding huge profits for those who had bet on falling prices .
Volume during this time slot was approximately nine times higher than the Medium for the same period, according to CBS News data. There was no public news or catalyst to explain this sudden surge.
“Is this the best-timed trade of 2026?” analysts at Kobessi Letter questioned at the time.
A similar phenomenon occurred on April 7, 2024, when trades totaling approximately $950 million bet on falling oil prices just hours before Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran. Following this news, oil prices fell by about 15%.
Lawmakers demand clarification.
Senators Elizabeth Warren and Sheldon Whitehouse sent a formal letter to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on April 9, 2024. In the letter, they expressed concerns about the potential misuse of undisclosed government insider information, violating the Commodity Transactions Act.
Mr. Ritchie Torres also requested that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the CFTC thoroughly examine the trading activities surrounding both events.
The White House has denied any involvement. Spokesperson Kush Desai called the allegations that the administration used inside information for trading "baseless and irresponsible."
The CFTC has tools to monitor Futures Contract trading and has the authority to request transaction records. However, investigations like this often take weeks or months to reach a publicly released official conclusion.
No one has been accused yet, and the identities of the traders involved have not been revealed.
The oil market remains highly volatile due to new developments in the US-Iran conflict. Any further announcements from the White House could lead to continued scrutiny of trading activity prior to the announcement.
