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ToggleBitcoin briefly broke through $76,000 on Tuesday, reaching a new high since early February. This rebound was supported by a combination of factors: valuation recovery, a temporary easing of the US-Iran conflict, and a weakening US dollar. However, according to a report released on Wednesday by Julio Moreno, Research Director at CryptoQuant, multiple indicators are simultaneously issuing warnings: selling pressure is quietly accumulating.
Historical precedent for resistance at $76,800
Moreno noted in the report that the traders' on-chain actual price was $76,800, a major bear market resistance level that has historically limited rallies as holders nearing break-even have an incentive to sell, thus limiting further upside potential.
He wrote:
"If the resistance holds, the support zone around $67,600 will be the primary defensive level in the short term."
Exchange inflows surge, with large investors dominating fund movements.
As the price of Bitcoin rises, the inflow of funds into exchanges also increases. Moreno points out that the hourly inflow of Bitcoin has risen to about 11,000 BTC, the highest level since the end of December 2025. This is seen as a recent warning sign (investors moving assets to exchanges is usually a precursor to selling).
He further cited a contrasting example from March 2026: "At that time, the hourly inflow reached 9,000 BTC, with large deposits accounting for as much as 63%, and a short-term price correction occurred shortly thereafter."
According to CryptoQuant data, this surge in inflows was primarily driven by large holders. The average size of a single deposit on Bitcoin exchanges soared to 2.25 BTC, marking the highest single-day deposit since July 2024, driven by multiple large single deposits exceeding 1,000 BTC flowing into Binance.
Moreno added that this situation is highly similar to that in January 2026: "Back then, the average deposit amount was close to 2 BTC before Bitcoin plummeted from $100,000 to $60,000."
Profit-taking hasn't peaked yet; the $1 billion threshold is key.
Despite increasing warning signs, Moreno points out that current profit-taking has not yet reached a critical threshold. Currently, daily realized profits are approximately $500 million ($500M), still below the historically significant $1 billion ($1B) threshold that marks major profit-taking during bear markets.
"If Bitcoin can hold above $76,000, or even push further toward the trader's realized price of $76,800, daily realized profits could accelerate toward or even break through $1B, thereby increasing additional selling pressure and raising the likelihood of the market stagnating or reversing at this level," Moreno concluded at the end of the report.
In other words, whether the price can hold above $76,800 will determine whether this rebound is a short-lived respite or a trend reversal; and if selling pressure continues to accumulate, $67,600 is, Moreno predicts, a crucial defensive floor for the bulls.
