Bitcoin (BTC) has shown strong resilience amid US-Iran tensions, rising more than 12% since February 28, 2024. As instability casts a shadow over global markets, the biggest question on investors' minds remains: Has Bitcoin bottomed Dip , or could it still fall further?
In an interview with BeInCrypto, Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse and former NASA research expert, Chia his insights on the market's next trends.
When will Bitcoin bottom Dip?
Cowen explained that Bitcoin's cycle has a fairly clear pattern of repetition. He observed that, compared to the two previous cycles , Bitcoin peaked within about a week of the peak of those previous cycles.
Based on this model, Cowen predicts that the Dip will form approximately one year after the peak of the cycle.
“The basic scenario remains that Bitcoin will Dip like in the previous two cycles, about a year after the peak. The most likely scenario is in October 2026,” Cowen Chia with BeInCrypto.
Mr. Cowen also acknowledged that Bitcoin could Dip as early as May. However, this would only happen if the market experiences a massive sell-off, deeper than is typically seen in the middle years of a historical cycle.
As long as Bitcoin's year-to-date yields remain within the standard range of previous mid-cycle fluctuations, Cowen sees no reason to change his October Dip forecast.
"If you compare Bitcoin's return in 2026 to the Medium of the previous mid-cycle years, and then factor in the standard deviation, as long as it remains within this range, there's almost no basis for believing we'll break out of it, especially since it's only the beginning of the mid-cycle," he explained.
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This assessment is consistent with the analysis of many other experts . Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, noted that the peak of Bitcoin's cycle occurred 534 days after the April 2024 halving, the shortest peak period compared to previous cycles.
Based on this model and the signs of a shortening cycle, he predicts that the bottoming- Dip phase could occur around 912 to 922 days after the halving, equivalent to the end of September or the beginning of October 2026.
Data from CryptoQuant also leads to similar conclusions , with many models predicting a Dip will appear between June and December 2026, with the September to November timeframe XEM the most likely.
Why did Bitcoin reach its peak this time around a period of indifference rather than excitement?
A key observation by Cowen is that, while the timing of the cycle's peak is similar, market conditions are very different from before.
He argued that in 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin peaked amidst a wave of euphoria among retail investors. That was also when capital shifted to altcoins immediately after Bitcoin reached its peak.
However, in this cycle, social media interest in crypto has declined since 2021. Bitcoin peaked amidst apathy, so there hasn't been the usual "shift to altcoins" trend.
“This is a cycle where Bitcoin peaks amidst apathy rather than excitement, the only time this happened before, which was in 2019. When the market peaks amidst apathy, you don’t see money flowing into altcoins like in previous cycles,” he added.
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Bitcoin price movement. Source: BeInCrypto MarketsOverall, Cowen maintains the view that Bitcoin's four-year cycle continues. Currently trading around $73,831, Bitcoin is still down more than 40% from its all-time high of nearly $126,000 in October 2025. If Cowen's assessment is correct, Bitcoin could still fall even further before truly Dip out this cycle .
