Discussions regarding Bitcoin (BTC)'s 'response to quantum computers' are raising market tensions as they reveal technical limitations. Cardano (ADA) founder Charles Hoskinson stated that the proposal is structurally incomplete and even raised the possibility of 'permanent loss' for some holdings.
Hoskinson recently analyzed 'BIP-361,' proposed by developers Jameson Loeb and others, via YouTube and pointed out that characterizing it as a 'soft fork' is effectively a 'misleading expression.' He explained that while the proposal involves the gradual exclusion of existing Bitcoin addresses vulnerable to quantum computers, it is actually closer to a 'hard fork' in that it invalidates the existing signature system.
He asserted, “A hard fork is ultimately necessary to implement this change.” Given that Bitcoin has long regarded network immutability as a core value, the possibility of political conflict within the community is growing, extending beyond technical issues.
The problem lies in the recovery method. BIP-361 proposes a structure to recover funds locked by quantum attacks using 'Proof of Zero Knowledge' and BIP-39 seed phrases. However, approximately 1.7 million Bitcoins (BTC), particularly about 1 million BTC believed to be in Satoshi Nakamoto's wallet, were created before the introduction of BIP-39, so this method itself cannot be applied.
In this case, the volume in question is structurally impossible to recover even if the proposal is passed. The fact that a large volume of BTC, referred to in the market as the 'Satoshi volume,' could be permanently frozen could have a significant impact on the Bitcoin supply structure.
Bitcoin Outlook Maintains 'Bulls' Amidst Technical Debates
Despite such debate, the outlook for Bitcoin remains positive. Hoskinson predicted that Bitcoin (BTC) could reach $250,000 by mid-2026. He cited the inflow of institutional funds, participation by major tech companies, and increased regulatory clarity as key reasons.
The current price of Bitcoin is around $74,000, having recovered from the $66,000 level it fell to due to geopolitical risks in the Middle East. As it has broken through its recent high of $73,000 again, market expectations are also being gradually adjusted upward.
However, 'quantum computer risk' and the direction of BIP-361 processing are variables not reflected in existing pricing models. Analysts suggest that increased short-term volatility is inevitable if the proposal is delayed or leads to an actual hard fork.
Layer 2 Expansion Competition… Attempts to Address Bitcoin’s Limitations
Bitcoin's structural limitations are acting as a factor accelerating the expansion of the Layer 2 ecosystem. As attempts to resolve issues such as slow processing speeds, high fees, and low scalability continue, interest in related projects is on the rise.
In particular, with the emergence of Bitcoin-based scaling solutions, the possibility of it evolving beyond its existing role as 'digital gold' into a real-world network is being discussed. However, as protocol changes and scaling strategies are proceeding simultaneously, technical stability and the consensus process are expected to act as key variables in the future market.
Ultimately, Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a phase where expectations for a price increase intersect with technical uncertainty. With complex issues ranging from quantum response and the possibility of a fork to Layer 2 expansion becoming intertwined, a key turning point is forming that will determine future trends.
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Market uncertainty is increasing as criticism is raised that Bitcoin's quantum computing response plan (BIP-361) is technically closer to a 'hard fork' than a 'soft fork'.
In particular, the fact that approximately 1.7 million BTC may be structurally unrecoverable could affect changes in the supply structure and investor sentiment.
💡 Strategic Points
In the short term, we must prepare for the possibility of increased volatility due to hard fork controversies and technical risks.
In the mid-to-long term, the bullish trend could be maintained due to institutional capital inflows and regulatory clarity.
Projects related to Layer 2 and extension solutions have the potential for structural benefits.
📘 Glossary
BIP-361: Proposal to Gradually Exclude Vulnerable Bitcoin Addresses to Prepare for Quantum Computer Attacks
Hard Fork: A method of breaking existing rules and introducing a new system, which implies the possibility of network separation.
Zero-Knowledge Proof: A cryptographic technology that proves specific facts without disclosing information.
BIP-39: Standard for Generating Seed Phrases for Wallet Recovery
💡 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q. How does Bitcoin respond to the threat of quantum computers?
Q. Why can some Bitcoin disappear permanently?
Q. What is the impact of this controversy on the price of Bitcoin?
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